Ben Wallace has announced that he will be leaving frontline politics at the next cabinet reshuffle. In an interview with the Sunday Times, the Defence Secretary confirmed reports in the media that he will be stepping down at the next election – and also bowing out of the a cabinet ahead of polling day: ‘I’m not standing next time’, he says. ‘I went into politics in the Scottish parliament in 1999. That’s 24 years. I’ve spent well over seven years with three phones by my bed’. However, Wallace adds that he will avoid the route chattered by Boris Johnson and not quit prematurely thereby starting a by-election.
This means that in the next cabinet reshuffle – which as I first reported earlier this month will be in the autumn now rather than spring – there will be a vacancy for one of the top jobs. Wallace makes the point to the Sunday Times that the Tory offer on defence could be key to the party’s chances at the next election: ‘At the moment, I see Labour entirely avoiding the issue of funding for defence.’ Potential successors for Wallace include the Foreign Secretary James Cleverly, Penny Mordaunt and Anne Marie Trevelyan.
As for Wallace’s exit, I understand that having made the decision to step down at the next election, he thought it best to also stand aside at the next reshuffle to allow Sunak to appoint a candidate who will fight the contest. The boundary changes meant that Wallace’s current seat will no longer exist at the next election – so had he wanted to remain in the House of Commons he would have had to apply for a different seat. Despite this, his departure will add to a sense of a Tory exodus in anticipation of defeat at the next election.
His departure still causes Sunak a potential political headache. At a time when Sunak and his deputy are both in the negative with the Tory grassroots (according to the latest ConHome Cabinet League table), Wallace has been at the top for a long time and is a clear grassroots favourite. It means he was an important asset to the government politically when it came to party activists. It’s also the case that this wasn’t Plan A. That was for Wallace to take on the role of Nato general-secretary. However the US refused to play ball. In his Sunday Times interview, Wallace says of the furore: ‘Why do you not support your closest ally when they put forward a candidate? I think it’s a fair question.’
When it comes to Wallace’s legacy as the longest serving Defence Secretary since Winston Churchill, he has plenty to point to – including the numerous battles with the Treasury against MoD spending cuts. He also played a key role in the evacuation of Afghanistan – being praised for his role in comparison to the then foreign Secretary Dominic Raab. But what Wallace will likely be most remembered for will be his role in the Ukraine war – where Wallace, backed by Boris Johnson, was able to send anti-tank missiles in advance of the conflict. Wallace is clearly concerned as to how the war will end – warning that even if Putin fails in Ukraine he could lash out and conflict could emerge elsewhere.
While Wallace suggests he has no plans to cause problems for Sunak, it’s still possible to see how there could be friction ahead of the next election. The Prime Minister has currently committed to defence spending of 2.5 per cent of GDP – but has not set a date. If he fails to, it’s possible a free Wallace on the backbenches could hold him to account.
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