Rishi Sunak has narrowly avoided three by-election losses. Overnight, the Conservatives lost Somerton and Frome to the Liberal Democrats, overturning a majority of 19,213 to lead by 11,008 votes, and Selby and Ainsty to Labour, with Keir Starmer’s party overturning its largest ever majority at a by-election in post-war history. However, the Tories managed to narrowly cling on in Boris Johnson’s former seat of Uxbridge and South Ruislip, with a reduced majority of just 495 votes. It means today’s results are a mixed bag for Starmer and Sunak.
As is often the case with by-elections, it is Liberal Democrat leader Ed Davey who has the most to be happy about – chalking up another big by-election win following strong results in the local elections. The Liberal Democrats see their victory in Somerton as evidence that the party could do well in a general election, not just in the so-called blue wall – southern seats, including the commuter belt – but also in the south west, a former stronghold prior to the 2015 election. Ahead of the votes it was this seat where the Tories were the most resigned to defeat after David Warburton quit over harassment and drug allegations. As a government adviser put it to me ahead of polling day: 'One was sparked by a Tory MP taking cocaine so we probably deserve it.'
Selby was originally the seat the Tories were the most hopeful about – and it's the result that will be the most painful for the party. By overturning a majority of 20,137, Starmer can say he has made history and point to a result that shows Labour is performing well above the national 12-point swing the party needs for an overall majority at the next general election. If the swing of 23.7 was replicated in a general election, Labour would be on course to win more seats than Tony Blair in 1997. The Tories will point to the fact that by-elections tend to be worse for governing parties than general elections due to tactical voting. The circumstances of the by-election – sparked by an MP resigning over a row about peerages – haven't exactly helped. However, the scale of the Tory defeat in what was once seen as a safe seat will ring alarm bells for many Tory MPs with smaller majorities.
It's why the one ray of light for Sunak and his party today is Uxbridge. MPs out campaigning in the various seats reported receiving a better reception in Johnson's former seat than the other two. They also had a clear issue to campaign on: the planned expansion of Ulez (ultra low emission zone) by London mayor Sadiq Khan. Labour aides were determined to win the seat and overturn a relatively small Tory majority – with Labour MPs put on a three line whip to go and campaign.
In the end, they fell short – and given the general expectation was that the Tories would lose all three, the result will dampen any victory parade by Starmer. The Labour candidate had come out against Ulez – and Starmer himself was lightly critical of the scheme. The result will add fuel to the fire when it comes to the current Labour debate about how much to focus on the environment in the party's electoral offer. While today's results suggest that the Tories are on course to lose power at the next election, they also raise questions about Starmer's pitch to the electorate.
Here are the results in full from overnight:
Labour has won the Selby and Ainsty seat in North Yorkshire, by a majority of 4,161. The final count was:
- 16,456 for Labour's Keir Mather
- 12,295 for Claire Holmes of the Conservative party
- 1,188 for Matt Walker, of the Lib Dems
The Lib Dems won in Somerton and Frome. The final count was:
- 21,187 for Sarah Dyke of the Lib Dems
- 10,179 for Faye Purbrick of the Conservative party
- 1,009 for Labour's Neil Guild
The Conservatives held their seat in Uxbridge and South Ruislip. The final count was:
- 13,965 for Steve Tuckwell, of the Conservative party
- 13,470 for Labour’s Danny Beales
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