Katy Balls has narrated this article for you to listen to.
The SNP party conference in Aberdeen this week wasn’t the nationalist jamboree activists had hoped for. Even though it was Humza Yousaf’s first conference as party leader, several of his MSPs stayed away and the main hall was half-empty most of the time. ‘The key word was “flat”,’ says one attendee.
It was Nicola Sturgeon, Yousaf’s predecessor, who attracted the most excitement, when she made a cameo appearance on Monday. The former first minister had to deny she was the ‘Liz Truss of the SNP’ – a reference to the former prime minister’s attempts to upstage Rishi Sunak. ‘You’ve got to hand it to her for the hubris,’ said one unimpressed nationalist.
At least Yousaf has won praise for his handling of the events unfolding in Israel and Palestine. The First Minister, whose in-laws are trapped in Gaza, met with the mother of a victim of the Hamas attack and emphasised his support for Scotland’s Jewish community.
But none of this changes the fundamentals facing his party. In the past month, the SNP has lost the Rutherglen and Hamilton by-election to Labour and one SNP MP has defected to the Scottish Conservatives. Then there’s the ongoing Police Scotland investigation into possible fundraising fraud.
‘Humza will need to carry the can and I predict a new first minister next year’
Of the three issues, it’s Scottish Labour that’s the greatest concern to the nationalists. The Scottish Labour candidate for Rutherglen and Hamilton won twice the number of votes of his SNP rival. Polls suggest Labour will overtake the nationalists as the largest party in Scotland next year, and if the swing were replicated in the next general election, Labour could win around 40 of Scotland’s 57 seats. However, given that by-elections tend to encourage protest voting, Labour MPs feel a more realistic target is around 25 seats.
Labour victories in Scotland would make Starmer’s path to No. 10 much simpler. Peter Kellner, the former YouGov president, calculates that a good result for Scottish Labour and tactical voting elsewhere could mean Starmer only requires a 5 per cent lead in the popular vote for a Commons majority. Current polls put him 20 points ahead.
Already private conversations are going on in SNP circles about what will happen if Yousaf can’t turn things around before next year’s election. The First Minister describes his party as ‘slightly down but definitely not out’. But even a slight decrease in the vote share spells trouble for the SNP. ‘Their problem is that when they have 45 per cent of the vote evenly spread across Scotland, they win everything,’ says one seasoned unionist. ‘When they have 35 per cent and unionists rally round their principal opponent, they can win virtually nothing.’ It’s not just Labour licking their lips at the idea of SNP problems – the Scottish Conservatives also believe they can benefit. Party briefings suggest that on a good day the Tories could hope to win 16 seats in total.
Yousaf’s new Scottish independence strategy depends on stopping this collapse of Westminster seats. Sturgeon used to say that the general election was a de facto referendum, but this stance led to a rebellion from SNP MPs who feared that the cost-of-living crisis was likely to be a bigger priority for voters next year than independence.
In a bid to find a compromise, the SNP’s independence pledge has been scaled down – the party will push for another referendum if they win a majority of the 57 seats up for play. This will allow SNP MPs to say they are focusing on cost-of-living issues while also keeping the party’s base happy on independence. Not everyone is impressed with the fudge. Yousaf’s argument that there will be a mandate for independence even if the SNP wins considerably fewer seats than it did at the last election has raised questions about expectations. ‘It shows the party is braced for losses,’ says one Scottish Labour politician. Even if the party does win a majority of Scottish seats, it is unlikely that much would change. Whether it’s Sunak or Keir Starmer in No. 10, neither would grant a referendum. While support for independence remains pretty static at around 48 per cent, support for the SNP is falling, which is why senior figures in the party are already wondering what will happen if there is a disappointing election result.
Many believe Yousaf could be pushed out. ‘Humza will need to carry the can and I predict a new first minister next year,’ says a Scottish Tory. If Sturgeon is Yousaf’s Truss, then his former leadership rival Kate Forbes is his Sunak. Forbes, MSP for Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch, is one of a handful of rebellious nationalists who are opening up a new front against the SNP leadership in Holyrood. When her colleague Fergus Ewing lost the SNP whip after a string of backbench rebellions, Forbes stood alongside him as he addressed the media. She explained she didn’t think he should have to ‘stand alone’.
Forbes chose to stay away from the SNP conference, citing a pre-arranged trip to the USA. Given that the conference happens the same month every year, however, few were persuaded that the diary clash was entirely coincidental.
Even some of Yousaf’s supporters believe Forbes could make a comeback; the First Minister is aware that she poses a threat. He used his leader’s speech at conference to try to set out a growth plan that is friendly to business, which had been Forbes’s policy platform during the leadership contest.
If Forbes were to take over, though, she would face the same question: can the SNP hold together? Holyrood’s Greens – who are in a coalition with the SNP – say they would not work with her. If the prospect of independence recedes further, then it becomes hard to see what could unite the party. The current crop of nationalists are divided on gender issues, taxation and the best way to try to secure independence. ‘It will become the Tartan Tories vs the progressives,’ predicts a party figure. If Yousaf leads his party to disappointment next year, an SNP reckoning will soon follow.
Comments