At 8 a.m. this morning, my column was done, the ‘i’s were dotted, the ‘t’s crossed. I had even suggested a headline, ‘Three mudlarks for Sandown tomorrow’. Within half an hour, I would be pressing the send button on my weekly email to my friends at Spectator Life.
Sadly, just 20 minutes later, the whole column was redundant. My three fancies that loved heavy ground would not have the chance to lark around in the mud: tomorrow’s Sandown card, the highlight of which was due to be the final of the Unibet Veterans’ Handicap Chase, was abandoned due to waterlogging.
Since no bookie I have ever come across can be likened to a charity, the NRNB concessions typically leads to reduced odds
Since a tipping column without a tip is about as useful as a constitutional monarchy without a king or queen at its head, there had to be a hasty rethink. This weekend’s fare at the other tracks had already offered nothing of interest to me on the betting front.
However, as of this week, William Hill became the first bookmaker to offer NRNB (that, for the irregular gamblers, means Non Runner No Bet) on all 28 races at the Cheltenham Festival. Normally, an ante-post post bet is lost if the horse fails to run in the race in which you have backed it, but NRNB is an insurance policy against this.
However, since no bookie I have ever come across can be likened to a charity, the NRNB concessions typically leads to reduced odds. A punter therefore has to ask himself or herself just one question: ‘If horse X runs in this festival race, is it likely to be bigger or shorter odds on the day?’
With that question in mind, my first tip with the NRNB concession is DJELO in the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase. Venetia Williams’ six-year-old gelding has, like many of her horses, proved to be much better over chasers than hurdlers. Since switching to the larger obstacles, he has won all three of his races this season and he is now officially rated at 149. He’s on the small side for a chaser but he is a quick, neat jumper.
Do bear in mind that last year’s Turners Novices’ Chase attracted only seven runners and the winner, Stage Star, went into the race rated 152 and the runner-up, Notlongtillmay, went into it rated only 142.
In my mind, that makes Djelo a decent each way bet at 20-1 NRNB, three places for the Turners Novices’ Chase on 14 March. If he does not run, you get your money back. If he does run, he is very unlikely to go off at odds as big as 20-1.
My second bet with the NRNB concession is STUMPTOWN in the Ultima Handicap Chase on day one of the Festival (12 March). I put up Gavin Cromwell’s horse as one of my two tips for the Coral Gold Cup in November. However, he was hampered at the first fence and never got into any rhythm thereafter, eventually being pulled up before four out. I knew that run was too bad to be true and the horse returned from Ireland for another raid on British soil on New Year’s Day, this time winning a competitive little handicap chase at Cheltenham by five lengths.
The handicapper has yet to give him a new rating for that decent run but he is likely he will go up 5lbs or 6lbs to a mark of around 147 or 148. That would make him a strong candidate for the Ultima as connections know he likes the track and he has proved he can stay the distance.
I like the fact that Stumptown seems to handle all ground conditions from ‘good’ to ‘heavy’ and, once again, if he lines up for his most likely target, he is unlikely to be 12-1 or bigger. Back him each way with William Hill NRNB for the Ultima at those odds, especially as the bookie is already paying five places on the race.
I realise that for readers of this column to back these two tips they will either need to have, or to open, a William Hill account but that shouldn’t be too difficult to achieve. However, do not back either of these two horses without the NRNB concession as neither is certain to line up for the race that I have mentioned.
Incidentally, I have a very strong fancy for the Wigley Group-sponsored Classic Chase at Warwick a week tomorrow – he’s a well-handicapped horse who has been laid out for the race and I will definitely be putting my betting boots for this one. However, with no early declarations for the race and therefore no ante-post odds offered by bookmakers, it is a question of watch this space in seven days’ time.
2023-4 jumps season
Pending:
1 point each way Stumptown at 12-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Giovinco at 20-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Djelo at 20-1 NRNB for the Turners Novices’ Chase, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Home By The Lee at 28-1 for the Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, three places.
1 point each way Mahler Mission at 20-1 for the Randox Grand National, paying 1/5th odds, five places.
Settled bets from last week:
1 point each way Shakem Up’Arry at 7-1 for the New Year’s Day Handicap Chase, paying ¼ odds, each way. 1st. + 8.75 points.
1 point each way Frero Banbou at 9-1 for the New Year’s Day Handicap Chase, paying ¼ odds, each way. 2nd. +1.25 points.
2023-4 jump seasons to date: + 2.95 points.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 16 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 475 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
Comments