The news that German police have arrested two alleged Russian spies in Bavaria has understandably raised some alarm bells in Berlin. The men stand accused of targeting military infrastructure, aiming to undermine German support for Ukraine; such acute security threats are always bad news. But the response so far has been more defiant than divided. This latest spate of planned Russian attacks in Germany may well backfire on all fronts.
There is no doubt the incident is serious. The two men who were arrested in Bayreuth, northern Bavaria, on Wednesday stand accused of targeting German military facilities through arson and bombings. The main suspect, a 39-year-old man named by the press as Dieter S., is said to have communicated with Russian security services about acts of sabotage in Germany such as attacking infrastructure and industry as well as spying on American sites in Germany. According to the political magazine Der Spiegel, which first reported on the story, the US Army Garrison Grafenwoehr was among the places photographed. Ukrainian soldiers receive training there, including in the use of M1 Abrams tanks.
There is no doubt that Germany has a huge task ahead if it is serious about continuing to support Ukraine
Of course, global headlines that undermine Germany’s reliability in the eyes of its allies are never good news for the German government. These latest revelations come off the back of an embarrassing security leak last month involving the Russian interception and public broadcast of a supposedly top-secret discussion between senior German air force officials. As the leak included details of British involvement in the war in Ukraine, the response in London was testy. Former British defence secretary Ben Wallace called Germany ‘pretty penetrated by Russian intelligence’. News of Russian spies targeting the facilities of allies in Germany is, therefore, unlikely to help restore confidence.
If the aim, though, was to chip away at Germany’s resolve to support Ukraine, there is no indication that this has worked. Politicians have collectively responded with a bullish indignance that strikes an altogether sharper and more unified tone on Russia than has been the case recently. The Russian Ambassador has been summoned to the Foreign Ministry. Interior Minister Nancy Faeser promised a ‘resolute’ reaction to this domestic threat. ‘We will continue to support Ukraine massively and won’t be cowed,’ she added. The Green politician Konstantin von Notz demanded that ‘in the future, Germany must become significantly more robust, resilient and able to defend itself’. Vice Chancellor Robert Habeck, who is currently in Kyiv, reinforced the message that ‘Germany will do what it can to support’ Ukraine in its ‘fight for freedom’.
There is no doubt that Germany has a huge task on its hands if it is serious about continuing to support Ukraine and tackling Russian infiltration. There are many people in the country at all levels who are all too happy to help Vladimir Putin’s regime. On the day the two alleged spies were arrested, another suspect was questioned in court about allegedly selling information from the German foreign intelligence agency to the Russian Federal Security Service in September and October 2022. The prosecution says the 53-year-old suspect and his accomplice received €850,000 (£727,000) in total for the two transactions.
In both cases individuals with pre-existing links to Russia were involved. The alleged spies captured yesterday were described as German Russians, a term that encompasses a vast range of individuals and communities. The estimated overall figure for people with Russian roots in the country ranges between three and six million. The great majority emigrated after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, but many have roots that go back to the Cold War or the Second World War before it. It’s a diverse group of people many of whom are hostile to Putin, but some are not. There is a vociferous segment of activists in this community whose actions have ranged from organising pro-Russian marches to outright spying and sabotage. But it’s neither right nor possible to keep tabs on this vast group, especially when there have also been Germans with no prior links to Russia who have been all too keen to aid Putin.
Germany remains vulnerable to Russian sabotage and espionage and staunch words from politicians are unlikely to change that in the immediate future. But if the aim of the most recent attacks has been to sow division and uncertainty, there is no sign that this has worked. On the contrary. A recent survey showed that there is increased support for Ukraine, with the majority of respondents wanting the country to be admitted to Nato after the war. According to the same survey, 70 per cent would like to see more money spent on the Bundeswehr, the German military, even if that means cutting other public services back. It seems many Germans have taken stock of the vulnerability of their country to Russian infiltration and sabotage without turning these observations into anti-war or anti-Ukranian sentiment.
Worryingly, this doesn’t seem to apply to the majority of those who intend to vote for the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which has been accused of close ties to Russia. The AfD is currently polling as Germany’s second-most popular party, drawing on the support of millions of voters who have recently flocked to them. When asked whether it’s ok for the party they want to vote for to have political ties to the Russian regime, half of the respondents said ‘yes’. However, it’s also worth bearing in mind that 39 per cent said ‘no’. AfD voting, then, is not a straight route to pro-Putin sentiment.
It seems Russia’s ongoing campaign to undermine German morale and sow the seeds of division over support for Ukraine isn’t really working. Sure, the issue of war is far more of a controversial topic in Germany than it is in the UK but the reasons for that lie largely in Germany’s complex love-hate relationship with Russia that goes back a long way further than the recent spate of domestic interference and sabotage. For the moment, each new revelation about Russian meddling in Germany seemingly just shakes politicians and those elements of the public still inclined to see Moscow as a partner out of this illusion.
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