Sadiq Khan wins a third term as London mayor

Sadiq Khan has won the London mayoral race with 43.8 per cent of the vote to the Tory candidate Susan Hall on 32.7 per cent. Despite widespread speculation on Friday from Tory and Labour sources that the vote was closer than the pollster anticipated, Khan won comfortably. This makes him the first London mayor to win a third term. This all, despite new rules changing the contest to a first-past-the-post system and bringing in Voter ID.

Labour were increasingly confident they would win from early in the count. The ward results showed that Hall was underperforming her predecessor Shaun Bailey in many seats. In West Central (Hammersmith and Fulham, Kensington and Chelsea and Westminster), Khan secured 54,481 votes to Hall’s 43,405. To contrast this with 2021, Khan won 51,508 votes but his Tory opponent Shaun Bailey secured 53,713 votes.

It suggests Hall underperformed the 2021 Tory performance in several key areas. However, Hall did secure more support in outer London – in Bexley and Bromley she won over 54 per cent of the vote to Khan’s 24 per cent.

The result is a sobering reality to the Tory talk yesterday that Hall might pull off a surprise victory. However, it is still worth pointing out that the 11.1-point lead is closer than many opinion polls had with YouGov, suggesting Khan was on 47 points to Hall on 25 points.

The result will inevitably lead Tories to ask whether a different candidate could have bridged the gap. Khan has beaten Hall by a greater margin than he beat Bailey in 2021 and Zac Goldsmith in 2016, so this result will raise questions about the Tory campaign and candidate choice. The sense was that Khan was personally unpopular, and in the words of one Tory aide: ‘If there was a ever time to win, this was it’. The Tories felt Khan’s personal approval rating and record on crime meant they had a chance.

The result also hints to a potential change in mood in the Tory party over the result. On Friday night, the general take was Sunak was safe and the Tories had performed OK given the low expectations. However, the result in London is less tight than some Tories predicted. In the West Midlands, things are so tight recounts are underway – it means there is potential for the mood to change once again.