It takes some brass neck to cross the floor, but to do it in the manner of Natalie Elphicke also requires considerable levels of delusion. A year ago, the Dover MP warned Labour were not to be ‘trusted’ on immigration because they ‘really want open borders’. Yet a deciding factor behind her defection, she writes in her parting statement today, was the ‘safety and security’ of those borders – a matter on which Keir Starmer’s party has yet to convince anyone.
Elphicke objects to the ousting of Boris Johnson, yet her new colleagues wanted him out on day one
Elphicke also lambasts the Tories’ housing policy, although even Angela Rayner would struggle to articulate just what Labour plans to do to alleviate the crisis. She objects to the ousting of Boris Johnson, yet her new colleagues wanted him out on day one and made his life a misery for the last months of his premiership. But perhaps the most puzzling claim made by an MP considered to have been firmly on the right of her former party, was her complaint that the Tories have ‘abandoned’ the centre ground.
It’s possible Elphicke was referring to the decision to reach Net Zero at breakneck speed regardless of the costs, or the unwavering commitment to a socialist healthcare system which has some of the worst patient outcomes in the developed world, or even allowing net migration to reach 750,000 – all of which ought to be viewed as radical policies. But this seems unlikely, given there’s little more than a cigarette paper between the Tory and Labour positions on each.
She cannot have been referring to tax, with the burden now set to hit a 70 year high. We have a windfall tax on oil and gas firms, and corporation tax at levels not seen since the early 2010s. Thanks to the freezing of income tax thresholds, one in five taxpayers are projected to pay the higher or additional rate this tax year. Non-dom status has been scrapped. Under new rules introduced by Michael Gove, more than three-quarters of England’s second home owners will be charged double council tax next year. These are all policies which, as a new member of the Labour party, she would presumably welcome.
Nor could Elphicke have had spending – which has now reached 44 per cent of GDP – in mind. Thanks to Rishi Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, childcare is now costing the taxpayer around £10 billion a year. Close to £70 billion is now being spent on benefits for working age people who are disabled or have health conditions, with the number on long-term sickness benefit now increased by 400,000 since before the pandemic. And despite promises to the contrary, the government workforce just keeps expanding – with 138,000 growth last year.
Very few of the many problems facing Britain today can be resolved with regulation, yet 14 years of Conservative government has given us little more than a series of endless bans and pettifogging regulations. Fracking, plastic straws, disposable vapes, glue traps. One of the amusing aspects of Labour’s ‘New Deal for Workers’ was the idea such a deal was necessary, when the Tories have imposed an avalanche of worker-friendly employment regulations over the past decade. And while Rishi Sunak may have watered down some Net Zero targets, his party remains doggedly committed to decarbonising the entire economy within 26 years, which can only be achieved with more restrictions on motorists, levies on our bills, and regulations on businesses.
The Tories have even adopted the Left’s language. Remember when No. 10 summoned supermarket bosses in response to accusations of profiteering? Jeremy Hunt has repeatedly insisted that those with the ‘broadest shoulders’ pay their ‘fair share’ – though in 2023–24 the top 1 per cent of taxpayers received 13 per cent of taxpayers’ pre-tax income and provided 29 per cent of all income tax revenue. Meanwhile, ministers who dared speak out on immigration soon found themselves shunted to the back benches.
The real tragedy, of course, is that the ‘centre ground’ has shifted so far to the left under the Conservatives. When was the last time a Tory MP reminded us that a liberal market economy is the best mechanism for alleviating poverty, increasing prosperity and enriching lives? And the results are undeniable: stagnant productivity, ballooning national debt, crumbling infrastructure, a desperately inadequate healthcare service.
‘Britain needs a government that will build a future of hope, optimism, opportunity and fairness,’ Elphicke announced today. Perhaps Labour will succeed on the last metric, although research from the Institute for Fiscal Studies this week showed the country has already become far more equal over the course of this parliament, largely thanks to average living standards falling – far from the ideal way to achieve such things.
On all other fronts, it will surely fail as dismally as its predecessors. Where will Natalie Elphicke go then?
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