They think it’s all over – but is that actually the case? After a difficult start to the campaign for the Conservatives, many of their own MPs had privately written off their chances at this election. However a new poll out tonight could force the skeptics to think again, with Labour’s lead down to just 12 points. The survey for JL Partners revealed that the Starmer army still retain some 40 per cent of the vote but suggested Sunak and the Tories are coming up on the rails with 28 per cent.
The fieldwork for this poll was done on Friday 24 and Saturday 25 May, shortly after the Prime Minister’s announcement of a general election. The last poll done before this by JLP was on 5 May and had Labour enjoying a comfortable 15-point lead, with 41 points compared to 26 for Sunak. The principal reason for this is a shift amongst over-65s, with the Conservatives going from a 10-point lead over Labour to a 20-point lead with this age group. With the red wall now abandoning the Tories, at least the grey wall is holding true.
There are also fewer Conservative voters (23 per cent) now saying they would consider voting Reform UK, a 10 point drop on early May when the number stood at 33 per cent. It's early days of course and Mr S has his doubts. The shifts in the polls could just be noise, with the Keirleaders on Twitter likely to dismiss it as a rogue study. A 12-point lead would also still mean a categorical Labour win, with six in ten voters (60 per cent) convinced that it is time for a change of government.
Still, if anyone can snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, it’s the Labour party, eh?
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