In spite of his conviction for falsifying business records, Donald Trump is still expected by many to make a remarkable political comeback in November’s US election. Could we see an equally remarkable comeback this side of the Atlantic, too, with Liz Truss returning to the stand for the leadership of the Conservative party?
It’s possible to see a scenario where Truss is one of the few hopefuls remaining
Today’s Electoral Calculus poll predicting that the Conservatives could be reduced to just 66 seats on 4 July raises the question: who would still be around to lead the party after the almost certain resignation of Rishi Sunak? Electoral Calculus’s model is at the bleakest end of predictions – it envisages Labour with 519 seats and a majority of 320 – but its analysis also stands out in that it offers a seat-by-seat prediction. This allows us to look at a Tory leadership contest in the context of who may survive.
It suggests that many potential leadership hopefuls would be washed away, including Penny Mordaunt, who is expected to lose her seat in Portsmouth North. Hers is the 226th safest Conservative seat on these figures, and would be lost as soon as Labour won an outright majority. Also swept aside would be deputy PM Oliver Dowden, Home Secretary James Cleverly, Defence Secretary Grant Shapps and Pensions Secretary Mel Stride. Robert Jenrick wouldn’t be there, neither would Jacob Rees-Mogg nor Steve Baker, who is currently busily canvassing on some Greek island. Jeremy Hunt has one of the largest Tory majorities, yet Electoral Calculus reckons that tactical voting will see the Lib Dems take the seat.
Under the Electoral Calculus 66-seat model, Truss also loses South West Norfolk – but only just, with Labour predicted to win by a margin of 1.4 per cent. If the prediction proves to be a little too pessimistic, it’s possible to see a scenario where she is one of the few hopefuls remaining. Michael Gove, Nadhim Zahawi, Theresa May and Dominic Raab could all have been among the survivors – had they not announced they are retiring from the Commons. Rishi Sunak, too, would be expected to survive, but if he loses three-quarters of Tory seats he’s unlikely to expect to hang on to his job.
That leaves just Kemi Badenoch, Suella Braverman and Priti Patel – and Truss, who is such an outlier (at 100-1) that she doesn’t even make the top ten of contenders on whom bookmakers are currently taking money. Here are those ten, with the odds expressed as a percentage chance:
Let’s take the above runners and riders in turn. Suella Braverman? She has never been rich in supporters, and could be even less so after the election. In the Electoral Calculus scenario she loses an ally, Miriam Cates, while two MPs who vociferously opposed her, Alex Chalk and Claire Coutinho, would far more likely survive. Kemi Badenoch remains the leadership favourite – but traditionally, the favourite for the Tory throne seldom wins (think Heseltine, Portillo and Johnson in 2016). Priti Patel has been backed by some as the next Tory leader – including by the New Statesman – although has so far shown little sign of being up for the leadership.
But here is a scenario which shouldn’t be dismissed. Within days of the election, Rachel Reeves calls an emergency budget. She says she won’t do it without it being backed by a forecast from the Office of Budgetary Responsibility (OBR) – which Kwasi Kwarteng famously forewent – but even so, perhaps markets will turn out not to like Reeves’ budget any more than they liked his. Labour do, after all, appear to be promising the Earth, committing the country to a hugely expensive switch to near 100 per cent clean energy without giving us any idea where the money will come from, while ruling out anything more than token tax rises. The pound crumbles, bond markets take fright and Labour – which sided with the markets when they went after Truss and Kwarteng – damns the capitalist-wreckers it accuses of trying to undermine Starmer’s government.
Suddenly there is a reappraisal of Truss. Maybe it wasn’t just her, after all – maybe it is just that markets are out to thwart anyone who wants change. With Starmer now saying that his first priority is increasing the nation’s wealth, the remaining Tories start to wonder whether the party was right the first time – that Liz Truss’ focus on growth, growth, growth was spot-on, and that it was Rishi Sunak’s fiscal conservatism which condemned them to heavy defeat. If Liz Truss can get herself on the shortlist of two candidates chosen by the remaining rump of MPs, could she be in with a chance?
None of her enthusiasm for politics seems to have been dimmed. Her book, damned by many Westminster insiders, became a surprise bestseller. Moreover, there is still a large number of Conservative members who think she was done over by the political establishment – a British Trump, in other words – and never forgave it for imposing Sunak on them instead. How to seek revenge? By electing her leader a second time. Were they to be reduced to under 100 seats, no one would expect the Tories to be back after one term out of office, so Conservative members would not be picking a PM. Why not, then, go for the candidate who would be sure to make the greatest noise?
It is early days, but I am going to get in now and put a speculative punt on Truss taking back the Tory leadership – and with it, surely, The Spectator Parliamentarian of the Year Award for the greatest political comeback of the year.
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