France’s Gabriel Attal has resigned as prime minister. President Emmanuel Macron even made a ceremony out of it. And yet, here we are: still with Attal as prime minister in a caretaker role. They say this is likely to continue until September, or perhaps even longer. No government proposal has emerged since the elections. The left-wing alliance cannot agree over whom to nominate as prime minister and when. Forget the feverish haste after the elections. The left is now taking its time. Did they miss the moment, and will it be too late for them?
The left-wing alliance cannot agree over whom to nominate as prime minister
During the ten days of negotiations that followed the election result earlier this month, the left-wing parties stood by their initial positions: La France Insoumise (LFI) wants no compromise on its programme; the Socialists see themselves as essential in government; while the ecologists play small to avoid becoming an arbiter between the two main forces. Only the communists have been clear in their demands and not holding things up, writes Libération.
There has been some progress in talks. The Socialists have accepted that their candidate may not get the prime minister’s job. Will LFI now do the same? With the next presidential elections in mind, compromising could cost them votes.
On the right, we have also seen some movement. Laurent Wauquiez, a former leader of the centre-right Les Républicains party, came up with his proposal of supporting a government, not with ministers but with legislative proposals. This has the nature of a confidence and supply agreement. They still would need the Socialists for this to work out in numbers to get a majority in the National Assembly. The Socialists are currently not available for such talks. We are thus not there just yet.
Who has leverage over whom will be tested in the assembly, kicking off with its first session tomorrow. The vote for the presidency of the assembly is the first point on the agenda and a litmus test for the relative strength of each faction. This position is the fourth-highest in the Fifth Republic, after the president, prime minister and the president of the senate. If the candidate supported by the left alliance were to win, it would bolster their claim on the prime minister’s job and his government.
There are no clear majorities. An assembly president is thus likely to be elected as a result of tactical voting. How much does the left or the right still have to play for?
If you think the tactical manoeuvring in the two-stage legislative elections is difficult to understand and predict, this election is even worse. Electing the president of the assembly could go into a third round, if none of the candidate gets the absolute majority in any of the two first rounds. A third round would then decide with a relative majority. If none of the candidates gets a majority in the third round, the oldest will get the job. Three rounds are unusual, but very likely given the current numbers. It is also an unpredictable election process: candidates can stay in for all three rounds, others can be introduced in the second or even third round.
So far there are three candidates. The outgoing president Yaël Braun-Pivet from Macron’s party, who may count on the backing of Les Républicains MPs; Charles de Courson, 72, a staunch opponent to the pension reform from the independent centrist Liot group; and Annie Genevard, the conservative Les Républicains candidate, who has yet to be confirmed by her parliamentary group. The left alliance agreed on presenting a single candidate but has yet to come forward with a name. Marine Le Pen’s Rassemblement National, or National Rally, has yet to reveal its candidate too.
The main mission of the president is to direct and lead the debates in the assembly, ensure they are held in good conditions, and guarantee the application of the rules of the National Assembly. They may discipline MPs, which used to be rare in the first decades of the Fifth Republic, but increased significantly since the 2022 legislative elections. According to a count by Mediapart, 106 disciplinary sanctions were imposed in the past two years, compared with just 16 during Emmanuel Macron’s first five years in office.
If a left candidate cannot make it through to the third round and win, will this be the end of the left alliance’s attempt to form a government? How will they explain this to a voter? By pointing fingers at each other, as is already starting to happen? The left can hardly afford this if they really want to have a chance at the next presidential elections. At this point, left-wing parties need to decide what is worse with respect to their goals: compromise or remaining unbowed.
This article was first published in the EuroIntelligence morning briefing. For a trial subscription click here.
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