As regular readers of this column will know, I often like to back horses from up-and-coming yards, rather than the big stables, in the search of value. A progressive horse is often much bigger odds than he (or she) should be simply because it hails from a yard that is rarely in the spotlight.
With this in mind, I am hoping that the consistent mare OOH BETTY will outrun her odds tomorrow for the Dorset yard of Ben Clarke in the ultra-competitive Coral Racing Club Intermediate Handicap Hurdle, better known as the ‘Gerry Fielden’ (Newbury, 2.25 p.m.).
There was plenty to like about her last run of the season at Cheltenham in April when she was not disgraced behind Jeremy Scott’s Festival winning mare, Golden Ace. There was even more to like when, after wind surgery, she made her seasonal debut at Sandown earlier this month and comfortably defeated her six rivals.
Ooh Betty has been raised 6 lbs by the handicapper for that fine effort but she may have more improvement in her. Clarke has a strike rate of 25 per cent for the season and has had his string in good form over the past fortnight (two winners from seven runners for a strike rate of 29 per cent). Ben Jones, who rides most of the handler’s best horses, is in the saddle tomorrow too.
Clarke has already proved he knows how to place a good horse to win a top prize: The Galloping Bear, for example, won the Surrey National for him in January 2022 and then went on to be a close second in the Eider Chase at Newcastle just over a year later.
However, the best handicapped horse in tomorrow’s contest could well be Harry Derham’s QUEENS GAMBLE, who had her last season curtailed by injury. Her official mark of 130 looks lenient but she has been off the course for the best part of a year.
However, with the ground drying out and therefore more in her favour, I am happy to take a chance on her fitness. Back Queens Gamble 1 point each way at 7-1 with Coral or Ladbrokes, both paying four places.
BOWTOGREATNESS has long been highly thought of by his handler Ben Pauling only to disappoint on the racetrack, including at the Cheltenham Festival in March. However, he showed plenty of zest for the game when winning a five-runner handicap at Newbury on his seasonal debut three weeks ago.
He defeated a well-backed horse of Kim Bailey’s, Destroytheevidence, and that form looks decent. Pauling said after that win, ‘Bowtogreatness lost the know-how to win a race, but I think he’ll come on a ton for winning. He jumped brilliantly and he’s a very nice horse.’
Still rated only 133, Bowtogreatness can win again for joint owners Harry Redknapp and Pauling’s wife, Sophie, when he contests the BetMGM Rehearsal Handicap Chase tomorrow (Newcastle 3.20 p.m.). Back him each way at 11-2 with William Hill, paying four places. At one stage in his career, this eight-year-old gelding was said to prefer soft ground but he seems to prefer better ground as he has got older. The trip of a shade under three miles should be ideal for him too.
Of those at bigger odds in the race, expect an improved run compared with his last effort from Richard Hobson’s Some Scope, who disappointed at Cheltenham on his seasonal debut (pulled up) in October but who has now had wind surgery.
I have already put up my bet for tomorrow’s Coral Gold Cup in the form of Broadway Boy at 10-1, four places and he could even go off favourite tomorrow at nearer half those odds. I was tempted to go in double-handed in tomorrow’s big race of the day with Galia Des Liteaux. However, Dan Skelton’s mare would prefer softer ground and half a mile further so I will leave it at just the one bet.
But I can’t resist backing a horse at big odds in my favourite handicap chase of the season: the Coral Welsh Grand National at Chepstow. Indeed, if I knew that this horse would run to his best, I would keep backing him every day from now to 27 December.
However, since running a superb race in a red-hot running of the Ultima Handicap Chase at the Cheltenham Festival in March 2023, MONBEG GENIUS has continued to be frustrating due to a mixture of setbacks and poor runs. Last season, Jonjo O’Neill’s eight-year-old gelding was pulled up twice in his four runs and was third and fifth in his other two.
However, there was plenty to like about his seasonal debut at Haydock when second behind Fontaine Collonges earlier this month and he is on a lovely official mark of 144 for the Welsh National. He had an entry in the BoyleSports Becher Chase a week tomorrow but I would expect him to swerve that race in favour of a crack at the big Chepstow prize after Christmas.
We know Monbeg Genius loves Chepstow and we know he will relish the likely soft ground at the track. Back him each way at 20-1 with either SkyBet, Paddy Power or Betfair, all paying four places, and hope he stays sound for the next month.
Pending:
1 point each way Ooh Betty at 14-1 for the “Gerry Fielden”, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Queens Gamble at 7-1 for the “Gerry Fielden”, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Bowtogreatness at 11-2 for the Rehearsal Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Broadway Boy at 10-1 for the Coral Gold Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Gaboriot at 10-1 for the Becher Chase, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Monbeg Genius at 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
Last weekend: – 2 points
1 point each way Ahoy Senor at 6-1 in the Betfair Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2024-5 jump season running total: – 13.2 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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