Andrew RT Davies has quit this lunchtime as the leader of the Conservative group in the Welsh parliament. It follows a confidence vote among the 16 Tory Senedd Members (MSs) who narrowly voted by nine to seven to keep him on as leader. With the group split how best to proceed, Davies has opted to fall on his sword. In a letter, he says he does so ‘with regret‘ after members of his frontbench threatened to resign last week if he did not.
Davies described his position as ‘untenable’ following the vote, saying that ‘it was clear from the result that a substantial minority of the group do not support our approach’. This is despite Davies claiming it is ‘the only viable strategy available.’ As I wrote in last week’s Spectator, his approach is one that stressed a combative approach to the Welsh government’s ‘woke’ initiatives like ‘anti-racist’ dog-free zones. He argues in his letter that a ‘failure to confront controversial subjects’ risks ‘electoral oblivion’ – especially under the new proportional electoral system for Senedd elections, under which – he argues – ‘there is no scope to gain anti-Labour “tactical votes”.’
The problem is that there is only a narrow pool to draw from
The problem for Davies is that he was never able to convince his colleagues of the merits of this case. Since the establishment of the Welsh parliament 25 years ago, the Welsh Conservatives have oscillated between devolution-scepticism and enthusiasm. Some newer MSs argue that the Senedd is now an established fact of political life. Without embracing it, they argue, the party will be destined to forever finish second to Labour. A striking fact from today’s confidence vote is that all but one of the seven who voted against Davies were first elected in the last election of 2021.
What clearly helped focus minds was the bombshell ITV Senedd poll which came out on Sunday. It showed Plaid Cymru in the lead for the first time since 2010, with Labour in second, Reform in third and the Welsh Conservatives dropping to fourth. With 18 months to go until elections for Cardiff Bay, concerned members of Davies’ party clearly decided that there was only a narrow window to force their leader out and get a successor established in time.
The problem is that there is only a narrow pool to draw from. The fact that Davies had to be ‘asked’ to return as leader in 2021 – having previously served in the role from 2011 to 2018 – shows just how few contenders there really are. Darren Millar, who backed Davies in today’s vote, has served for 17 years and acted as the party’s chief whip since 2021. A younger leader could be drawn from the 2021 intake, such as Samuel Kurtz, James Evans or Sam Rowlands. ‘Whoever gets it will be like Rishi,’ says one Welsh Tory. ‘It’s a poisoned chalice.’
The challenge for the Welsh Tories is an existential one. With membership now down to less than 5,000 the party has got just eighteen months to get its act together to face threats on both its flanks. With Reform on the right and Labour and Plaid on the left, Davies’ departure will not end the party’s woes.
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