Can we trust the Conservatives to deliver – or even to try to deliver – on whatever migration-sceptic policy pledges they unveil for the 2029 general election? It would be wrong to say that the party’s record on this issue is chequered or that it has been unreliable in the past. Because during the 21st century it has been 100 per cent reliable – reliable in letting us down.
The Tory party has never delivered on its immigration promises and never put much effort into doing so either. In 2010, 2015 and 2017 it promised voters that annual net migration would be cut to ‘the tens of thousands’. In 2019, when it was handed a bumper 80-seat majority, it pledged that ‘overall numbers will come down’.
‘Trust me, I’m an engineer’ will not work on this one
Yet the Treasury and other Whitehall departments were permitted by David Cameron and Theresa May to put multiple roadblocks in the way of policies that might have cut net migration to anywhere near the target of 100,000 a year. And then came Boris Johnson: instead of bringing numbers down, he quadrupled them – ushering in a vast ‘Boriswave’ mainly of unskilled, dependent and culturally non-aligned immigrants.
Johnson’s chief lieutenant in creating the highest immigration levels ever was Priti Patel, his loyal home secretary who ushered in a series of liberalising measures in direct contravention of the manifesto promise and broader commitments made during the 2016 EU referendum campaign. Yesterday we learned that Patel, now the shadow foreign secretary, does not regret this, does not understand the negative impacts it has had on our society and economy and is actually proud of bringing in enormous numbers of people she described, absurdly, as ‘the brightest and the best’.
In a televised interview with the Sun’s Harry Cole, she repeatedly refused to apologise for her record and at one point appeared to suggest her critics should apologise to her, declaring: ‘It’s legal migration – people who come here to work and contribute.’ She later issued a ‘clarification’ after being rebuked by Tory leader Kemi Badenoch. ‘Our party is now under new leadership and it is important we learn from our mistakes and how we can do things better…More words will not solve the problem,’ she said.
On that last point we can probably all agree – more words from Patel on the subject of immigration are not going to solve the political problems facing the Tories, as they stare up at Reform and Labour from third place in the opinion polls. Indeed, Reform leader Nigel Farage posted Patel’s original interview to his 2.2 million followers on X, urging them to share it ‘far and wide’. ‘The Conservative party are proud of their disastrous record on immigration – and would do it again,’ said Farage. And that last phrase was the killer line, weaponising the Tory record in preparation for the next campaign.
Patel is far from being alone at the top end of the shadow cabinet in being culpable for policies viewed by many of the party’s potential supporters as outright treachery. Shadow chancellor Mel Stride also has form in this area, for instance telling the House magazine as recently as 2023 that ‘migration is a quick and easy lever to pull to resolve labour shortages and boost the economy’.
Badenoch herself is also compromised after a video clip of her welcoming more relaxed rules on worker visas back in 2018 began getting widely shared on social media. It was notable at Prime Minister’s Questions this week that she stayed well away from the biggest political news story of the week – those ONS forecasts of further mass immigration pushing the UK population to 72.5 million by 2032. When Tory backbencher Andrew Rosindell did raise the issue, Keir Starmer made mincemeat of him, declaring: ‘He should talk to his party leader. Net migration went through the roof under the previous government by nearly one million – it quadrupled. And who was cheering it on? The Leader of the Opposition.’
It is true that the Badenoch video clip is being taken out of context – she was welcoming the prospect of further high-skilled migrants and by her first leadership campaign in 2022 was already arguing that immigration numbers had risen far too high. Yet she appears not to understand the foundational nature of this issue among millions of socially conservative voters. It is not just a matter of immigration having been too high, but one of basic social cohesion having been unravelled and national identity destroyed. ‘Trust me, I’m an engineer’ will not work on this one – the social engineers have already done their worst.
A couple of weeks ago, a spokesman for Badenoch briefed journalists that she would not change her shadow cabinet at all before the next election, which seemed a stretch even then. Now it looks ludicrous. Badenoch would seem to have only two levers left to pull: promote Robert Jenrick or send for Suella.
Watch the interview with Priti Patel here:
"Did every one of those 1.2m people flooding into the country in the last three years, did they need to come here?"@MrHarryCole challenges Priti Patel to apologise for promising to take back control of borders, before 'throwing them open'.
— Talk (@TalkTV) January 30, 2025
📺 WATCH: https://t.co/Io5NfLiOa3 pic.twitter.com/tsScoBRlJF
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