Vladimir Putin has set his conditions for Donald Trump’s ‘unconditional’ ceasefire: Kyiv must not mobilise or train troops, nor receive military aid, then Ukraine must ultimately accept a final peace deal that eliminates the ‘root causes’ of the conflict – i.e., which erases Ukraine’s sovereignty. The Kremlin’s terms remain the same as they were three years ago: Ukrainians must cede four partially occupied regions to Russia. He also wants Kyiv to dismantle its independent government and surrender the right to choose its alliances.
Surprisingly for Ukraine, Trump decided to get harsher on Russia too
Putin has no reason to end the bloodshed until his imperialistic terms are met. His troops are rapidly advancing in the Kursk region. He favours war because it leaves his regime unchallenged: Russians don’t need to worry about oligarchy, poverty and persecutions while coffins keep arriving from the front. But 700,000 Russians are dead and wounded and Putin still hasn’t achieved his goals in Ukraine. After years of gruesome fighting, Ukraine hasn’t been demilitarised or ‘de-Nazified’. Quite the opposite – Ukraine’s army is now the largest in Europe, its government remains independent and it is strengthening its ties with the West. For Putin, the war has been a complete failure.
For much of Joe Biden’s presidency, Putin felt relatively secure and was allowed to bleed Ukraine indefinitely until it could resist no longer. Donald Trump’s return to the White House has complicated this plan. As the only superpower at the table, the American President has leverage – through sanctions on Russia or by cutting off Ukraine’s aid – to pressure both sides to stop the fighting. Russia has broken ceasefires with Ukraine 25 times since 2014 and has faced few to no consequences, but doing so again under Trump could be a far costlier gamble. That’s why Putin has chosen a much safer route – to stall the talks until most (if not all) of his terms are met.
Ukraine and Russia stand on opposite poles: Putin won’t stop until Ukraine is either crushed on the battlefield or forced into submission at the negotiating table. Ukraine won’t surrender because its very survival is at stake. That puts Trump in a bind. As he rushes to broker an immediate ceasefire to deliver a win to the American electorate, Trump must choose which side to appease. So far, he has been tougher on Ukraine. Though it is the defending side, it is also the weaker one, which means ‘peace’ will be achieved more quickly if Ukraine compromises on its red lines.
Trump sees Ukraine as an obstacle to his grander ambitions. He wants to repair ties with Russia, believing he can pry it away from China – which is impossible while Putin’s troops remain bogged down in Ukraine’s meat grinder. It is easier for Trump to give Moscow what it wants at Ukraine’s expense. The military aid halt worked on Kyiv – Ukraine was forced to agree to a 30-day ceasefire without any security guarantees upfront. Nothing stops Trump from demanding more concessions from Kyiv.
Surprisingly for Ukraine, Trump decided to get harsher on Russia too: he allowed Joe Biden’s energy license to expire yesterday, practically cutting off foreign purchases of Russian oil through sanctioned banks. He also resumed shipments of long-range bombs to Ukraine. But this won’t be enough to force Putin’s hand.
Steve Witkoff, Trump’s envoy to the Middle East – who is serving as a mediator in Russia – left Moscow early this morning and will soon deliver Putin’s list of demands to his boss. The ball then will be in Trump’s court.
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