The last twelve months in Britain have seen a general election, leadership contests, council polls, mayoral races and even a parliamentary by-election – and the next year isn’t looking to be much quieter as the Scottish and Welsh parliamentary elections loom. The starting gun was fired on the race for Scotland’s Holyrood poll today, as party leaders from all sides of the Chamber took to podiums across the country to make their pitches to the public.
Speaking from Edinburgh this morning, SNP First Minister John Swinney celebrated an anniversary of his own: his first year in the top job, after he replaced his beleaguered predecessor Humza Yousaf in April last year. As I wrote yesterday, under Swinney’s leadership the party has found some stability: its support has risen in the polls to 35 per cent, there are fewer instances of overt infighting, the party’s head office has been reorganised in a DOGE-style manner to work more efficiently and the party is slowly but steadily moving away from an overly-progressive agenda dating back to the days of the coalition with the Scottish Greens. Today Swinney reiterated his ‘cost of living guarantee’ for the Scottish people, his pre-election pledge to scrap peak rail fares and his vision for the NHS.
Scotland’s politicians can’t seem to get enough of talking about Reform
Swinney also addressed the issue of independence – something that, despite the SNP’s regular digs at their unionist opponents, hasn’t been spoken of all that much in recent months by the party leadership. The First Minister reaffirmed his approach to secession: that it must follow delivery and good governance. ‘Our task,’ he said of the SNP, ‘as the party that will guide Scotland to independence, is to create the conditions where that can happen. That means getting all of our ducks in a row.’
Yet whether Swinney can get voters excited about his party’s gradualist, delivery-focused approach is another matter. After almost 18 years in power the SNP is leading a country that is seeing worsening NHS waits, a wide poverty-related attainment gap, inadequate transport links (not to mention the ferry fiasco that never seems to end) and a stubborn cost of living crisis. Talking about delivery now will seem to many to be too little, too late.
The SNP have had a stroke of good luck lately though – through no doing of their own. Not only are Scottish Labour and the Scottish Tories struggling to cut through with voters – thanks in many ways to their counterparts in Westminster – but support for Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is rising north of the border. Just today a new Survation poll for advisory firm True North has published record levels of support for Reform UK in Scotland, with the party projected to pick up 19 per cent of the constituency vote and 20 per cent on the regional list. Translating that into seat numbers, according to analysis by WhatScotlandThanks, would see Reform UK become the largest opposition party in Scotland with 21 seats – ahead of both Labour on 18 and the Tories on a dismal 13.
This is bad news for the Scottish Conservatives, who have struggled to pick up momentum after their UK party’s general election loss last summer. New leader Russell Findlay wasn’t scared to hit out at the First Minister his speech today, rubbishing his Programme for Government as a ‘waste of time’ and blasting the SNP leader for having run out of ideas. His endless SNP attack lines, however, don’t appear to be conferring much benefit to his party. Today’s poll is yet another that suggests that the Scottish Tories would become the fourth-largest party in Holyrood, taking just a handful of seats more than the Lib Dems and the Greens.
And while Scottish voters are increasingly flocking to Farage’s crowd, Scotland’s politicians can’t seem to get enough of talking about the insurgent party either. Findlay spent time today discussing the significance of the Reform threat – although it remains unclear exactly how the Conservative leader plans to tackle it rather than simply fear-monger about the nationalists. In his address today,
Findlay warned that Nigel Farage would ‘gladly gift the SNP five more years’ and hinted at a twisted love-in between the Reform leader and Scotland’s First Minister. ‘A vote for Reform is a gift for the SNP. That’s why John Swinney isn’t scared of Nigel Farage, he’s thrilled by him. It’s his dirty little secret,’ he insisted. ‘We will not lurch to the right as some suggest. We will put forward a proud Scottish Conservative vision.’ But on the specifics of what the Scottish Tories are offering voters, Findlay needs to be clearer.
The subject of Reform managed to dominate Scottish Labour leader Anas Sarwar’s speech toady too. He was quick to attack the First Minister over his warnings about Farage, accusing Swinney of ‘recklessly’ talking up Reform’s prospects to distract from his own party’s record in government. Sarwar’s message was taken from the playbook that saw his UK party soar to success in last year’s national poll: vote for more of the same under the SNP or a ‘change in direction’ under Labour.
While this may have worked last year, Sarwar faces a tougher audience this time around – Sir Keir Starmer’s honeymoon period has well and truly worn off and attempts by Sarwar’s Scottish group to distance themselves from unpopular policies like the two-child benefit cap or winter fuel payment cuts have the added complication of being perceived as concerning party splits. Indeed, Sarwar’s comments today suggest there has been further souring of relations between the Scottish and UK parties – with the Labour leader telling reporters: ‘Next year you can’t change the UK government, but you can change the Scottish one.’ It’s hardly the most enthusiastic endorsement of Starmer’s army.
Reform poses a far bigger problem to Scotland’s unionist parties than they want to let on. Both Scottish Labour and the Conservatives are heading into a very damaging election unless they can figure out how to better sell their vision to voters. Part of this may simply lie in connecting with people on the doorsteps better – after all, last week’s English local elections showed just how deep-rooted the distrust in politicians remains. Voters are becoming less loyal to parties they would have once stuck by, and Scotland’s politicians will have their work cut out if they are to build that trust back in time for next May.
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