Could Reform become the official opposition in Scotland?

To Scotland, where some rather curious polling has been published – suggesting that after next year’s Holyrood election, Reform UK could become the largest opposition party north of the border. The Survation survey for True North projects the current party of government, the SNP, will become Scotland’s largest party – taking a third of the constituency and regional list vote and winning 58 seats – with Nigel Farage’s lot leapfrogging both the Tories and Scottish Labour to end up in second place, taking a fifth of the vote to end up with 21 seats. It’s quite the turnaround!

Anas Sarwar’s Scottish Labour lot may be punished at next year’s poll for Sir Keir Starmer's unpopular policies, with the reds predicted to take less than a fifth of the vote and win just 18 seats. Meanwhile the Scottish Tories could be bumped into fourth place – from their current position as the largest group in opposition – winning just 13 seats and taking little more than 10 per cent of the vote. The Liberal Democrats would be hot on their heels with ten MSPs while the Scottish Greens would benefit from the list vote to gain eight politicians after next year’s poll. How very interesting…

This latest survey is in line with previous polls that demonstrate growing support for Reform UK at the expense of Scotland’s unionist parties. While Sarwar might have once had his eyes on the top job, current projections suggest it is rather unlikely he will become First Minister next year. The SNP meanwhile are enjoying a bounce under John Swinney, whose toned-down approach has returned a sense of stability to Scots north of the border after the rather tumultuous leadership of hapless Humza Yousaf. And it has been suggested that the Nats are not altogether unhappy about the rise of Reform in Scotland – while they are not yet looking to win a majority in Holyrood, Farage’s party is proving to be ample competition for their unionist rivals.

Not that becoming the official opposition party is the ceiling for Reform UK. Mr S hears from party bigwigs that they believe they could strengthen their Scottish support to become the largest party in Holyrood next time around. Watch this space…