The unsettled weather forecast coupled with the number of leading horses who are untried at the distance of tomorrow’s Betfred Derby (3.30 p.m.) have increased the chances of a surprise result.
The form of Ruling Court is rock solid but his victory in the Betfred 2000 Guineas at Newmarket came on good ground and over a trip of just a mile. Tomorrow’s contest over Epsom’s twists and turns will be over a mile and a half and it will be on much softer going than at racing’s headquarters more than a month ago.
Ruling Court’s style of running and his breeding give every indication that he will stay 10 furlongs but 12 furlongs on ground with some cut could be another matter so odds of no bigger than 9-2 do not appeal. This morning the going description was “good to soft, good in places” but there are always certainly more heavy showers to come before the off.
Delacroix and The Lion in Winter have been the most heavily backed of Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien’s trio and, after becoming the choice of stable jockey Ryan Moore, the former looks likely to go off favourite in an ultra-competitive 19-runner race worth more than £900,000 to winning connections.
Ralph Beckett’s pair of runners are of interest. Pride of Arras, who won the Al Basti Equiworld Dubai Dante Stakes on just his second run, and Stanhope Gardens, who could improve significantly for the step up in trip, both have chances, but draws of 2 and 16 respectively are far from ideal.
Despite the Derby being run over a middle distance, the draw has proved important in many runnings of the race since starting stalls were first introduced in 1967. No horse has won from stall 2, 11 or 16 yet, quite remarkably, no less than 11 horses have won from stall 10. Generally, it has paid to have a draw of stall 10 or lower.
The outsider of O’Brien’s three runners, LAMBOURN, is drawn in stall 10 tomorrow and it is not only because of his favourable berth that I think he is worth backing. This lightly-raced horse is one of the few guaranteed stayers in the race having won the Boodles Chester Vase over a trip just in excess of the Derby distance.
Not only did he win going away that day, but he has winning form in France on very soft ground from last season. He might just lack the speed needed to win a modern-day Derby but he will not be found wanting in stamina.
O’Brien’s outsiders have won the Derby before, most noticeably when Wings of Eagles caused a major shock when winning at 40-1 in 2017. So back Lambourn 1 point each way at 10-1 with bet365, offering four places not three like many of its rivals.
Today’s Betfred Oaks (4 p.m.) has attracted a much smaller field than for the Derby. In fact, just nine three-year-old fillies are due go to post for this classic worth more than £325,000 to the winner.
Trainer Charlie Appleby’s Desert Flower is quite rightly favourite for the race after being unbeaten in her five starts, most recently winning the Betfred 1000 Guineas on her first run of the season. Like Ruling Court in the Derby, she is almost certain to be able to stay further than a mile but one mile 4 furlongs on softish ground could stretch her stamina to the limit.
Appleby rates Desert Flower as the best filly he has ever trained which is praise indeed coming from such a successful trainer. However, with doubts over her stamina, then odds of 6-4 are skinny.
That old saying “fourth in the 2000 Guineas, first in the Derby” can also be applied to the Oaks too. Its origin is that if a horse bred to stay further than a mile is good enough to be fourth in the Guineas, he/she might well win the Derby/Oaks over a more suitable, longer trip.
ELWATEEN was fourth in the 1000 Guineas at Newmarket last month on only her second-ever start, having won a modest race at Kempton back in August last year on the all-weather.
Although this filly also has to prove her stamina over the Oaks trip, the comments of her trainer, Saeed bin Suroor, immediately after the 1000 Guineas certainly gave every encouragement for today’s contest.
He told journalists: “Elwateen needs further and we could now look at the Oaks as an option…The further she goes, it will be better for her…I think she would go straight to Epsom as the Musidora [at York] would be too close. A bit more give in the ground would suit her.”
So the longer trip and the softer ground should be ideal today in the Oaks. Back Elwateen 1 point each way at 12-1 with Ladbrokes, Coral or BetVictor, all paying three places. That looks an attractive each way bet to me.
Of her many classy rivals, Aidan O’Brien’s Minnie Hauk, who will stay this trip and has Ryan Moore in the saddle, and Revoir, a lightly-raced improver from the Ralph Beckett yard, are both likely to run well. Significantly, one of O’Brien’s two other Oaks runners, Giselle, has attracted market support overnight and she could well outrun her odds.
I had been tempted to put up Botanical in the today’s Betfred Nifty 50 Handicap (3.15 p.m.) as this five-year-old gelding will have been aimed at this pot for some time. The booking of Ryan Moore and the overnight rain are pluses too.
However, this is a hot 13-runner handicap and the likes of Defiance and Mutaawid have strong chances too so, at no bigger than 4-1, it is easy to refrain from backing Botanical today.
Last weekend: – 2 points
1 point each way Chillingham at 14-1 for the Betfred “Play Fred’s £5 Million” Handicap, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. Non runner, stake returned.
1 point each way Luther at 12-1 for the “French Derby”, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Elwateen at 12-1 for the Oaks, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Lambourn at 10-1 for the Derby, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Native Warrior at 50-1 for the Royal Hunt Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Trawlerman at 8-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Duke of Oxford at 33-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places
2025 flat season running total – 13.8 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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