My main fancies for Royal Ascot this year have all run in the first three days and the final two days look a lot harder to me in terms of finding good wagers. Winning money from the bookmakers is hard, giving it back to them is easy. I am therefore going to approach today and tomorrow with caution and have fewer bets.
In today’s Group 1 Commonwealth Cup (3.05 p.m.) over six furlongs, Shadow of Light and Jonquil have been heavily backed as both horses drop back in trip from a mile. The former was third in the Betfred 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, while the latter was second in the equivalent French race at Longchamp.
Both horses clearly have strong form but I prefer to side with a proven sprinter in the shape of BABOUCHE, who has winning Group 1 form from Ireland last year and who was impressive last time out at Naas when winning a Group 3 contest, beating the odds-on Whistlejacket very comfortably.
I hope this three-year-old filly can continue to improve for the Ger Lyons/Coline Keane trainer/jockey combination and I would be surprised if she is out of the frame today. Back her 1 point each way at 4-1 with bet365 or SkyBet, both paying a generous five places (she is 9-2 elsewhere paying one place less).
Trainer Emma Lavelle is best known for her exploits over jumps but when she turns her hand to the flat her runners are always worth a second look. Silver Ghost is an improving horse and must have a chance of landing today’s Sandringham Stakes (5 p.m.) at Royal Ascot. However, the handicapper has raised Silver Ghost 8lbs for her comfortable win at Goodwood last time out and that may prevent her from landing her hat-trick.
Twenty-five three-year-old fillies are due to line up for this one-mile contest which is worth more than £56,000 to the winner and I am going to side with Ed Bethell’s unusually named OOLONG POOBONG, who won with plenty in hand at Haydock last time out over seven furlongs. Jockey Connor Beasley keeps the ride today and the extra furlong should be within his mount’s reach. Back Oolong Poobong 1 point each way at 11-1 with Betfred, Paddy Power, Betfair and Unibet, all offering six places.
At a much bigger price in the same race, I am going to take a chance on Owen Burrows’ second string SEA POETRY, who is lightly raced and open to improvement. She would ideally want the going softer than it is today having won on her racecourse debut at Newmarket last year with cut in the ground. She has been second in both starts since.
However, at big odds, I am prepared to take the risk on her being able to handle this quick ground and so the suggestion is 1 point each way at 50-1 with bet365, paying six places. Odds of 10-1 that he will reach the first six seem more than fair, although her draw in stall 9 may not be ideal.
I have already put up Elite Status each way at 25-1 for tomorrow’s Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes (3.40 p.m.) but I was hoping this race would cut up more than it has. Furthermore, trainer Karl Burke’s horse have not been in sparkling form this week but the bet is on so let’s hope for the best.
However, I now want to go into this race double-handed in this race with the six-year-old French raider TOPGEAR for the Christopher Head/Stephane Pasquier trainer/jockey combination.
This six-year-old is on a four-timer tomorrow after comfortably winning on his seasonal debut, a Grade 3 contest at Longchamp over seven furlongs. This stiff six furlongs at Ascot should be ideal for him and, although most of his best form is with cut in the going, his handler insists his horse is versatile ground-wise. Back him a point each way at 7-1 with SkyBet, offering five places rather than at 8-1, less places, with other firms.
That’s it for a week of tipping at this glorious event. As usual with betting every day at these big meetings, there have been plenty of highs and lows but fortunately more of the former than the latter, with three decent-priced winners and some other placed horses at big odds too.
I am pleased to say that my tips this week will have shown a healthy profit overall even if these five wagers for today and tomorrow, including the one from last Friday, all bomb (and hopefully that will not happen). Thanks for those who have shared their views and expertise this week in the comment section – keep those thoughts coming please. I will be back again as usual next Friday.
Yesterday: + 12.6 points.
2 points win Parole d’Oro at 10-1 for the Britannia. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Afentiko at 25-1 for the Britannia, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Trawlerman at 8-1 for the Ascot Gold Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. 1st + 9.6 points.
1 point each way Yorkshire at 40-1 for the Buckingham Palace, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. 6th. + 7 points.
Pending:
1 point each way Babouche at 4-1 in the Commonwealth Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Oolong Poobong at 11-1 for the Sandringham, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Sea Poetry at 50-1 for the Sandringham, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places.
1 point each way Elite Status at 25-1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each Topgear at 7-1 for the Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Duke of Oxford at 33-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Who’s Glen at 16-1 for the Northumberland Plate, paying 1/4 odds, 4 places.
2 points win Caballo de Mer at 10-1 for the Northumberland Plate.
2025 flat season running total: + 44.86 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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