Most elections are fought and won on the economy. So it is no surprise that the Tory leadership have identified this as the strongest issue on which to attack Keir Starmer. At the 1922 committee last night, Kemi Badenoch told her troops that the economy would be the ‘number one issue’ going forward. Alex Burghart, her policy chief, did the same this morning at the Onward think tank, in a thoughtful speech reflecting on the first year of this government.
Burghart’s speech stressed three main points. The first, the primacy of economic policy in political debate, as the contractions under Labour become increasingly evident. The second, the underpriced possibility of widespread civil unrest summer. The third, the complete breakdown in Keir Starmer’s authority, following last week’s welfare revolt. His conclusion: that this is increasingly an administration which is increasingly in office, but not in power.
In Burghart’s diagnosis, the conclusion to Britain’s ails is, unsurprisingly, the restoration of the Conservative party to office to undertake, once more, its historic role of rescuing the country from socialism. Asked about how radical the next government would be, Burghart was much too savvy to be drawn into anything resembling criticism of his colleague James Cleverly. But he did point to the energy on the political right and hail the prospect of new ideas for state reform.
All this was delivered with plenty of flourishes befitting a former lecturer. Referring to the benefits rebellion, Burghart quoted Churchill on Suez: ‘I would never have started – but having started I would never have stopped.’ The OBR’s projections now resemble ‘a Lib Dem bar chart: it just doesn’t look convincing.’ Asked about Gen Z men going right, while women vote left, he replied ‘It might make for some very interesting date nights for young people – and maybe a very low birth rate.’
It served as a neat end way to round off the parliamentary term. Burghart’s speech on one year of Labour could be summarised by another Churchill line: ‘It is not even the beginning of the end – but it is perhaps the end of the beginning.’ After a difficult first twelve months, there are few signs that the next twelve will be any easier for Starmer. The challenge for Burghart and his colleagues this summer will be in convincing voters that they would make a better fist of it.
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