Nicola Sturgeon may be stepping down as an MSP next year, but that doesn’t mean she’s done with Scottish politics. Instead it seems like her 32-year-old mini-me, Màiri McAllan, is being primed by the former first minister and her allies to become the party’s future leader. The remarkable similarities between the pair suggest Sturgeon sees a little of herself in McAllan, who also signed up to the SNP at the age of 16, went on to study law at the University of Glasgow, and caught the attention of a first minister before her career took off.
Although she remains relatively unknown outside SNP and media circles, Sturgeon’s protégée and former special adviser is racking up an impressive CV. Since becoming an MSP in 2021, the housing secretary has also served as environment minister and cabinet secretary for transport and energy. The question of who is supporting her rise – and why – is where things get interesting.
‘It does just feel as if it’s going to be continuity Sturgeon,’ one Nat says. ‘She’s holding the chess pieces.’
First Minister John Swinney has suggested he could stay in post until 2031 but there are expectations that an SNP leadership election will be held halfway through the next parliamentary term – and the weight of the Sturgeonite party establishment has very deliberately swung behind McAllan. As well as being Sturgeon’s onetime mentee, she has the support of the former first minister’s allies, many of whom who are still in cabinet. There’s finance secretary Shona Robison, Sturgeon’s closest friend, social justice secretary Shirley-Anne Somerville and education secretary Jenny Gilruth: dubbed the ‘Holyrood sisterhood’. She’s backed too by long-time SNP special advisers, some of whom worked alongside McAllan before she went into frontline politics and they retain a fierce sense of loyalty to Sturgeon.
‘It does just feel as if it’s going to be continuity Sturgeon,’ one Nat says. ‘[Sturgeon’s] holding the chess pieces.’ ‘Her tentacles will still be reaching into Bute House and the cabinet table, even though she’s not going to be in parliament next year,’ another remarked scathingly. It seems the former FM’s influence lives on – despite Sturgeon appearing to spend most of her time organising her book tour. ‘Sturgeon didn’t back anyone officially last time but we all know she was hitting the phones for Humza,’ an insider pointed out.
This time, the ‘priming’ of McAllan hasn’t been all that covert. ‘I’ve been surprised about how blatant it is,’ one SNP MSP admitted. It has been suggested the ‘manoeuvring going on to anoint McAllan’ led to Kate Forbes – who was widely expected to make a second bid for the leadership – deciding to stand down as an MSP next year. Some have suggested that Forbes’s exit opens up an opportunity for ex-SNP MP – and Sturgeon ally – Ian Blackford to make a return. ‘He’s the dark horse here,’ one veteran nationalist added. ‘Does he suddenly then become an outsider that could be the next leader, potentially, especially if you’re looking at a caretaker regime that’s basically saying the new kids on the block aren’t ready to take the reins yet?’
Even though it is only her first parliamentary term, McAllan is pipped to be the establishment’s continuity candidate when the time comes for Swinney to step aside. The wheels are already in motion. She is a poster girl for party loyalty and discipline – traits both Sturgeon and Swinney rate highly – having never once rebelled. Swinney’s recent reshuffle put McAllan front and centre. ‘It was all about Màiri,’ one insider complained. Another pointed out that it was McAllan who set out her stall for a ‘new generation’ of Scots to have their say on independence after Swinney announced his new strategy, and that the new housing secretary has featured heavily on social media – more so than Forbes, the deputy first minister. ‘I’d bet my house on Màiri McAllan being the deputy first minister if Swinney wins next year’s election,’ another nationalist predicted.
When she has been tested, McAllan hasn’t done all that well. Not long after taking on her new brief, she got into an on-camera muddle over social housing figures. As net zero secretary, she managed to escape criticism for the controversial deposit return scheme that was ultimately delayed at a cost of more than £86 million. And the former cabinet secretary also dodged the blame for the highly protected marine area (HPMA) plans that saw outrage wash across coastal communities. The Scottish folk band Skipinnish compared the proposals to the Highland Clearances. Her junior minister – and Green co-leader – Lorna Slater bore the brunt of the backlash. ‘I think the party were quite happy to let the Greens take the rap for it,’ a source admitted wryly.
Looking at current polling, however, recognition of the possible contenders remains low. ‘The stand-out message is that there is no clear frontrunner,’ pollster Mark Diffley tells me. ‘The biggest problem in a situation like this is public visibility. None of the potential candidates have high public recognition.’ Within the party things look a little different. Luckily for McAllan, her would-be competitors have managed to upset the Sturgeonite establishment in different ways. Kate Forbes’s infamous TV takedown of her leadership rival Humza Yousaf in 2023 upset the progressive wing of the party, which already found itself at odds with her religious beliefs.
Meanwhile, SNP Westminster leader Stephen Flynn ruffled party establishment feathers when he ousted the former Westminster group leader, Blackford, in December 2022. More recently, Flynn and fellow MP Seamus Logan faced accusations in February – which they flatly deny – that they were drawing up a ‘hit list’ of female SNP MSPs to oust. The current Westminster group leader is standing in the Aberdeen Deeside & North Kincardine seat while his colleague Stephen Gethins will contest Dundee City East. Dave Doogan, the MP for Angus and Perthshire Glens, is – if Flynn is successful next year – thought likely to become the next Westminster group leader.
Those who once backed Forbes now wonder whether her supporters will turn to Flynn. ‘The pro-business gauntlet has been laid down with [Forbes] stepping away,’ one remarked. ‘Stephen Flynn could easily pick it up.’ And while the current Holyrood group may not be overly enamoured with the Westminster leader at present, Flynn has appeal. ‘He’s got that sort of Mhairi Black-ism about him,’ a party source laughed. ‘The nutters who have “45” tattooed on their thighs will be all about him.’
A leadership challenge could be closer than some SNP figures would like, depending on the outcome of the Holyrood election. There remains a widespread anxiety about just how far off a majority the party could end up – they’re polling between 30 and 35 per cent, around 15 points down on 2021 – with some even floating the idea of a ‘grand coalition’ with Scottish Labour in a bid to keep the party in government. Money remains a concern: the party has haemorrhaged members in recent years, the short money from Westminster has dried up and the Operation Branchform investigation into the party’s finances has made supporters more cynical about donating. SNP HQ has ‘hollowed out’ its staff and there are concerns that large donations to Labour could create significant disparity between the two parties’ ground campaigns.
If Swinney fails to achieve a good result next year, he will, for the second time, likely be forced out as leader. Given the most recent race for the top job saw infighting tarnish the party’s reputation, Sturgeon and her circle of loyal politicians and advisers are determined not to face the same scramble for a successor again. With Màiri McAllan, it seems the Holyrood sisterhood et al have already selected their continuity candidate-in-waiting.
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