The results of last weekend’s races provided a reminder that it is impossible to know which horses are fit enough to do themselves justice on their first runs of the season. Several trainers sent their horses to Cheltenham thinking they would run well on their seasonal debut only to be disappointed. Three horses tipped in this column a week ago were among those to under-perform first time out.
So this weekend I am going to be more cautious. One horse that has already had a run this season, and a winning one at that, is INDEMNITY in the 12-runner Lavazza Handicap Hurdle (Ascot, tomorrow 3.10 p.m.). This improving five-year-old gelding is a consistent performer and he is now on a hat-trick. Another plus is that Indemnity’s handler Emma Lavelle is in sparkling form: she has had four winners from 16 runners over the past fortnight for an impressive strike rate of 25 per cent.
Tomorrow’s contest is a competitive race over just shy of two miles in which the favourite, Alexei, looks to be the main danger. However, Indemnity looks the value and so back him 1 point each way at 17-2 with Betfred, paying four places. There is some 9-1 around for win-only punters but with bookies only offering three places.
The most intriguing race tomorrow is the bet365 Charlie Hall Chase (Wetherby 2.57 p.m). Protektorat, for the Skelton brothers, is the stand-out on official ratings but he has not had a run this term and he would prefer softer ground. The classy Irish-raider Hewick does have good recent form and he is not far behind Protektorat on the ratings, while The Real Whacker won this race last year and will love the likely fast terrain but has a lot of ground to make up on the ratings against better rivals a year on. On balance, this is a race to watch and enjoy.
I don’t usually back horses for the Cheltenham Festival until the New Year but, for those who are willing to be patient, there are a couple of horses at big odds that are worth a bet even five months away.
The key to successful ante-post betting on a classy horse for the Festival is to be nearly 100 per cent sure of its target and then to opt for a horse that is not ground dependent. Step forward ROMEO COOLIO, who ran with credit as a novice hurdler last season, including being third in the Grade 1 Supreme Novices’ Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival.
All the signs were that he would be even better as a novice chaser and he goes down that route later today at Down Royal (3.47 p.m.) in a beginners’ chase. Gordon Elliott, the horse’s trainer delivered an upbeat assessment on Romeo Coolio this week in his Racing Post stable tour: ‘His schooling has been excellent, as we thought it would be. He’s ready to rock and worked really well at Navan the other day alongside some of our best horses. He’s in serious nick.’ Elliott also confirmed the Grade 1 Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase on day one of the Festival as Romeo Coolio’s main target for the season.
Come 10 March of next year, Romio Coolio may have the likes of Kopek Des Bordes and Luamba to beat but back him 1 point each way for the Arkle at 16-1 with bet365 or Unibet, both paying three places.
Another horse going down the novice chase route this season, but one who is much more of a stayer, is DERRYHASSEN PADDY for the Lucinda Rusell and Michael Scudamore yard. This horse is very much the apple of the eye of Peter Scaudamore, Russell’s partner and Michael Scudamore’s father.
He ran a huge race in March of this year to be third in the Grade 1 Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle on ground that was on the soft side of good while his fine early season form last season was on much softer ground. He is unlikely to be risked on quick ground for the time being because he is a huge horse and every inch a staying chaser in the making.
Back him 1 point each way at 25-1 for the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase on 11 March. That price is on offer with bet365, Ladbrokes and Coral, all paying three places. Of course, come March, this six-year-old gelding is likely to have some hot-pots from Ireland to contend with, including Willie Mullins’s best staying novice chaser, but at big odds he is worth a bet.
I have switched to the jumps for tipping purposes but, in any case, I have no strong fancies for this weekend’s Breeders’ Cup meeting in America or next Tuesday’s Melbourne Cup in Australia. However, good luck to those who do decide to dabble.
Pending:
1 point each way Indemnity at 17-2 for the Lavazza Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Romeo Coolio at 16-1 for Arkle Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Derryhassen Paddy at 25-1 for the Brown Advisory Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 8 points
1 point each way Charging Thunder at 13-2 for the Conditional Jockeys Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 4 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Traprain Law at 7-1 for the squareintheair.com Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Transmission at 9-1 for the William Hill Best Odds Guaranteed Handicap Chase, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Patriotik at 18-1 for thePertemps Network Handicap Hurdle, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2025-26 jumps season: running total – 8 points
2025 flat season: + 84.12 points on all tips.
2024-5 jumps season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Total for six seasons of tipping: + 126 points
Comments