For more than a decade, Westminster has been obsessing about whether Nigel Farage will do a deal with the Tories. First, it was Ukip in 2015; then the Brexit party in 2019. Now, the question is whether some kind of pact should be struck by 2029. This age-old debate has been reopened today. First, the Financial Times claimed Farage has told donors that the two parties will come to an accord. Then, the Times reported that that senior figures within Reform want Robert Jenrick, the shadow justice secretary, to defect from the Tories. Farage has slapped down the first story and refused to comment on the second.
But there are certainly plenty of people in British politics who are keen to talk up both stories. Both Labour and the Liberal Democrats seized on the reports as proof that their opponents are indistinguishable. At Prime Ministers’ Questions, Keir Starmer enthusiastically raised the FT story while the Lib Dems rushed out a press release accusing Farage and Jenrick of ‘plotting one behind closed doors.’ They hope to damn both the Conservatives and Reform by association – an attack which ought to give advocates of a merger pause for thought. As pollster Luke Tryl put it: ‘Given that voters are savvy, if they want to vote for the party most likely to beat a party of the left they’ll do it’.
Those close to Robert Jenrick have been quick to dismiss claims that he is about to defect. One ally points to a busy Christmas schedule, packed full of constituency association engagements. Another rubbishes the reported suggestion in the Times that Jenrick is ‘downbeat’: ‘I wish he was downbeat. He’s wearing the team down with his constant ideas for his next campaign.’ The source adds: ‘He genuinely enjoys his brief – it’s hard not to have fun opposing Calamity Lammy.’ One senior MP pointed to the relatively muted reaction which the defections of three ex-Tory MPs received on Monday. ‘They [Reform] can see we are having a good spell and are trying to spoil it. They are trying to knock us off the front.’
A decent number of Jenrick’s staff and supporters from 2024 have crossed to Reform in the past 13 months while the shadow justice secretary commands a certain respect in some quarters of Farage’s party. But with the polls in such a constant flux, any such defection would seem particularly improbable so far before the May elections – when the Tory leadership might become a live question again. The proposal too that Jenrick could be immediately handed the number two job in Reform is one that will certainly ruffle feathers within Milbank Tower. Farage has previously turned down defectors who have sought to come across with terms and conditions attached.
Alliance with the Tories is not what he seeks; subjugation is much closer to his preferred outcome. Having been – as he sees it – betrayed and let down by the Conservatives so many times before, he and others within Reform are currently unwilling to settle for anything less.
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