The results from the European parliamentary elections shows how EU politics is increasingly polarised. It also demonstrates how old party allegiances are fading in favour of loyalties for parties with more specific ideological and policy platforms. Against the backdrop of Brexit and divisions convulsing global politics, these elections – which have been marked by issues such as immigration and climate change becoming inextricably linked to the role of the EU – saw the highest participation in 20 years. Fragmentation that is shaking up politics domestically has been transferred to the European level.
So what do these elections mean for the health of the EU project? Although they are fought on national issues in many cases, the heightened significance of EU dimension in countries that are being governed by parties with an emphatic positive or negative stance on the EU cannot be ignored. This is particularly the case for two of the EU’s founding members, France and Italy.
French president Emmanuel Macron’s ambitions for a European Renaissance are already resisted by number of member states. The tight victory of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) might see his domestic authority slightly weakened, though RN also won the last European elections with a higher percentage (although this latest defeat carries more symbolic weight.
In Italy, Matteo Salvini’s Lega won the election with 33 per cent of the vote, while the anti-establishment Five Star Movement crumbled to 17 per cent. Salvini might now pull the plug and call fresh elections, hoping to lead a majority government. In addition, the victory of Fidesz in Hungary will strengthen Viktor Orban domestically, while the Law and Justice (PiS) victory in Poland is important ahead of Polish national elections later this year.
The elections also have key domestic ramifications in a number of countries. The floundering of both establishment parties in Germany is significant. The CDU achieved 28 per cent – its worst ever performance in European elections – in results that will put pressure on leader Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer to change tack, while the SPD’s disastrous results might lead to fresh elections.
In Spain, the victory of PSOE in European elections a month after winning 29 per cent of the vote in national elections will affect the composition of the new Spanish government, likely to be a minority PSOE one.
In Greece, governing party Syriza lost by nine per cent to centre-right New Democracy, prompting Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras to call fresh elections.
The composition of the new European Parliament will also, of course, impact the legislative decision-making of the EU. The shrinking number of seats for the centre-right and centre-left political groups is one of the defining features; results in Germany, Italy and France starkly illustrate this.
On a European level, the centre-right European People’s Party and centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats that have carried European Parliament legislation through the “Grand Alliance” will, for the first time since 1979, not hold a parliamentary majority.
They will now need ALDE and the Greens to pass legislation, although this will not be difficult to achieve. This makes it something of a myth that Eurosceptics will be able to potentially wreck EU legislation, since there will still be a functioning parliament for pro-EU forces.
These elections have also resulted in strong performances from challenger parties who advocate for more and less Europe respectively.
On one hand, pro-EU parties that ask for more cooperation and emphasise their adherence to European liberal values registered clear gains. Pan-European group ALDE increased its seats from 67 to 102 and Greens from 50 to 71, with significant Green gains in Germany, Ireland, and France.
On the other, Eurosceptic, mostly right-wing populist parties, pledging to radically change the EU and rebuild it in their own light saw a slight improvement of their 2014 results yesterday.
Under the shadow of Brexit, most Eurosceptic parties have abandoned leaving the EU as one of their manifesto promises, seeing electoral mileage in proposing reforming the EU.
However they failed to make significant inroads, with parties such as the German AfD, PVV and Forum for Democracy in Netherlands, the Danish People’s Party and Estonian EKRE underperforming. This means that Eurosceptics will be unable to block legislation and critical divisions between them persist on many issues such as economic policy – where Salvini’s budget plans stand in stark contrast to fiscally conservative AfD, while Salvini’s Russophile stance is also a bone of contention with many. Despite this underperformance, of course, the strong showing of Eurosceptic parties in the four most populous EU states – France, Italy, Poland and the UK – cannot be ignored.
Finally, these elections will set in motion a direct process for the selection of top EU jobs. The choice of the next European Commission president is likely to be a source of institutional infighting, with the Spitzenkandidat process still resisted. This will also have a knock on effect on the selection of the Council and ECB presidents, with nationality and gender playing a role in selecting all jobs, making for an unwieldy process to look out for in the following weeks.
European elections have historically been 28 national elections. This makes pinning down an overall picture difficult. But what is clear is that these votes interrupted the trend of declining participation and saw a greater interest in the European picture, whether from those opposed to a bigger Europe – or those who are broadly happy with the Brussels’ status quo.
Zoe Alipranti works on EU politics at the think tank Open Europe
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