British politics has not lost its flair for the dramatic. If it was not enough to have Sajid Javid resign as -chancellor less than a month before the -Budget, Wednesday’s statement was delivered against the backdrop of a global economic crisis. Coronavirus is causing a shock to both demand and supply. We have not had a crisis like this in decades, and there is no obvious immediate solution for national or -global policy-makers.
The £30 billion of emergency measures the new Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, announced in the Budget are not the last set of actions we will see in response to coronavirus. The government is still waiting to see how the situation develops, and how severe the economic and societal disruption will be. It must, though, be remembered how difficult temporary changes are to reverse once introduced. If the state ends up as the effective employer of everyone in the gig economy during this crisis, it will be very difficult to go back.
Dealing with the coronavirus is a huge test for the government. A good response isn’t going to win the next election, but a bad one could lose it. At the end of the crisis, voters must be left with a sense that the government is competent. If not, the public will conclude that the Tories aren’t going to be capable of handling other issues either.
What will determine if the Tories do win the next election is whether they are perceived to have succeeded in their ambitions to ‘level up’ the country. The party’s 80-seat majority is a result of the gains they made in the north, the Midlands and Wales. If those places don’t think the Tories are delivering, Boris Johnson will be out of office in 2024.
‘Levelling up’ is a vague phrase. Many Tories are reluctant to define it precisely.
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