The new flat season and the Pertemps Network Lincoln at Doncaster (tomorrow 3.35 p.m.) will dominate the racing pages this weekend, and rightly so. The bookmakers have the correct horses at the head of the market for the Lincoln: two improving four-year-olds, Al Mubhir and Awaal, but both at cramped odds.
I largely stay clear of betting on the flat for the first month of the season because it is hard to know which horses are fit and which are not after their winter break. If I was forced to have a bet, it would be an each-way play, many places, on Charlie Fellowes’s Atrium, another four-year-old improver who has won his last two races and will love the soft ground.
A course and distance winner, Atrium is priced at around 12-1 which looks fair. At 40-1, the veteran Safe Voyage looks overpriced as an each-way alternative but he may well need the run. I am going to be disciplined and not put up any bet in this ultra-competitive 22-runner handicap over the straight mile.
Instead, I am going to suggest backing a horse in the Boylesport Irish Grand National. The seven-year-old gelding is trained by an Irishman who definitely deserves a change of fortune: Martin Brassil is not a well-known name even in his native Ireland but he is a brilliant target trainer nonetheless.
Last month the Co. Kildare handler brought over only two horses to the Cheltenham Festival. His first runner, Fastorslow, was beaten a neck by Corach Rambler in the Ultima Handicap Chase on day one. His second runner, An Epic Song, was beaten by an even narrower margin – a head – by Langer Dan in the Coral Cup Handicap Hurdle on day two.
Brassil definitely has a chance of landing the Randox Grand National at Aintree on 15 April with his horse, Longhouse Poet, but it is his entry in the Irish Grand National five days earlier that interests me even more. PANDA BOY looks likely to enjoy the step up in trip to three miles five furlongs at Fairyhouse on 10 April. Take the 16-1 each way on offer now with bet365, even though the bookie is only paying four places.
Despite usually being a safe jumper Panda Boy fell last time out at Leopardstown which is not an ideal preparation for any race, let alone a National. However, it is his good runs in big-field handicaps over both hurdles and chases that makes me feel fairly confident that a marathon trip is what Panda Boy needs to be seen at his best. That said he is probably better on good ground rather than heavy.
In his penultimate run, also at Leopardstown, Panda Boy ran a cracker to be third in the 28-runner Paddy Power Chase. Last season, while still racing over the smaller obstacles, he won one of the Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle qualifying races, this time in a 27-runner field. Both those victories came over three miles.
His biggest dangers in ten days’ time could be Noel Meade’s Thedevilscoachman, who looks well handicapped on his best form over hurdles, and Dermot McLoughlin’s Lord Lariat, who won this race last year at 40-1 albeit off a 9 lbs lower rating.
There will, of course, also be several runners from the powerful Willie Mullins and Gordon Elliott yards so this tip is put up in hope rather than expectation. All in all, however, I would rather put my hard earned on horses which have recent form over jumps rather that distant form on the flat.
2022-3 jumps season running total + 44.5 points on all tips.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Panda Boy at 16-1 in the Irish Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Gesskille at 16-1 in the Topham Chase, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
1 point each way Any Second Now at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled bets:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced (4th). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55, with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.
1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, seven places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 15/2 for the Doncaster 3.15 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Back On The Lash at 7/1 for the Cheltenham 12.40 p.m., 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 8.4 points
1 point each way Empire Steel at 12-1 in the Sandown 3.30 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each Small Present at 25-1 for the Grand National Trial (Haydock 2.40 p.m.) paying 1/4 odds, four places. Unplaced – 2 points.
1 point each way Homme Public at 9-1 for Ascot 3 p.m., paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Party Business at 20-1 NRNB for the Pertemps Network Hurdle Final, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake returned.
1 point each way Benson at 16-1 in the Morebattle Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 19.2 points.
1 point each way Monviel at 17/2 for the Imperial Cup, paying 1/5 odds, six places. 5th. + 0.5 points.
1 point each way Saint Segal at 20-1 NRNB for the Grand Annual, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake Returned.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 20-1 NRNB for the Plate Handicap Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Non Runner. Stake Returned.
1 point each way Doctor Bravo at 22-1 for the Sky Bet Supreme Novices’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Nassalam at 20-1 NRNB for the Ultima Handicap Chases, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way I Like To Move It at 20-1 for the Unibet Champion Hurdle, 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Metamorpheus at 16-1 NRNB for the Boodles Juveniles Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 6th. – 2 points.
1 point each way Mister Coffey at 25-1 for the National Hunt Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. 3rd. + 4 points.
1 point each way Camprond at 20-1 NRNB for the Coral Cup, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 3rd. + 3 points.
1 point each way Elixir de Nutz at 14-1 for the Grand Annual Chase, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way French Dynamite at 14-1 NRNB for the Ryanair Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dashel Drasher at 28-1 for the Stayers’ Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, four places. 3rd. + 4.6 points.
1 point each way Gin Coco at 14-1 NRNB for the County Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Hewick at 20-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Royal Pagaille at 50-1 NRNB for the Cheltenham Gold Cup, paying 1/5 odds, three places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Magic Daze at 11-1 for the Mares Chase, paying 1/5 odds, three place. Refused to race. – 2 points.
1 point each way Might I at 10-1 NRNB for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 4th. + 1 point.
1 point each way Iroko at 9-1 for the Martin Pipe Hurdle, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st. + 10.8 points.
1 point each way The Galloping Bear at 14-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. P. – 2 points.
1 point each way Notachance at 33-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 3rd. +5.6 points.
1 point each way Secret Reprieve at 10-1 for the Midlands Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places. P. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dans Le Vent at 33-1 for the Uttoxeter 3.35 p.m., 1/5 odds, three places. U. – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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