When, not if, is fast becoming the sense among Tories about a no confidence ballot. One former cabinet minister tells me that he expects the 54 letters to be in even before the two by-elections on 23 June. But, interestingly, he thought that Boris Johnson would win the confidence vote, albeit not handsomely. Another former minister, who thinks the Tories would be best served by a new leader, argues that it would be better for the rebels to wait until after the two by-elections next month before triggering a ballot as that would increase the chances of Johnson losing it.
The fundamental problem for the Tories is that they are deeply split on the leadership question. The no confidence ballot will be a tight affair, those who know the parliamentary party best think the most likely result is Johnson winning but by a smaller margin than Theresa May did in 2018. In these circumstances, Johnson would not resign but it would be very difficult for him to carry on with so many of his own MPs having expressed no confidence in him.
If this were to happen, the parliamentary party would become increasingly difficult for either Johnson or any successor to manage. The situation is not helped by the fact that there is little agreement on what leader would best help both those Tory MPs threatened by the Lib Dems and those in Labour Tory marginals.
The only thing that is certain is that Tory leadership drama will dominate from parliament’s return on Monday.
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