David Paton

A Halloween no-deal Brexit is no longer a scary prospect

Project Fear is back after a seasonal break. Far from resolving anything, Theresa May’s decision to delay Brexit back in the spring simply kicked the can down the road, frustrating companies who invested scarce resources into getting ready for a 31st March departure.

Damaging as the decision to delay Brexit was, the silver lining is that seven months’ on, the UK is likely to be in a much better position to cope with the no-deal fall out.

You wouldn’t know if it you listened to the CBI who continue to churn out “no-deal” scare stories. Or if you read the civil service memo apparently “leaked” to the media, explaining that the UK needs at least another five months to be ready for “no deal”. Funnily enough, that takes us beyond the 31st October deadline. You might almost think Mark Sedwill and co. are trying once again to rule out the possibility of a clean break with the EU.

It doesn’t seem to matter that the civil service have already had over three years to prepare for Brexit – they always need a bit more time. I wonder if the new occupant of Number 10 will interpret the latest memo as demonstrating that someone high up in the civil service has not been doing their job and needs to be held accountable.

Of one thing we can be sure: “no deal” will continue to be presented as a disastrous prospect over the next few months. Certainly, leaving the customs union and single market will be a challenge for some parts of the UK economy.

For example, high EU tariffs on key agricultural products such as lamb will affect the export market for farmers, while manufacturing sectors involving complex cross-border supply chains will be vulnerable in the event of border delays. 

Already a subscriber? Log in

Keep reading with a free trial

Subscribe and get your first month of online and app access for free. After that it’s just £1 a week.

There’s no commitment, you can cancel any time.

Or

Unlock more articles

REGISTER

Comments

Don't miss out

Join the conversation with other Spectator readers. Subscribe to leave a comment.

Already a subscriber? Log in