James Forsyth James Forsyth

A majority of Americans now think the US will succeed in Iraq

New polling data reveals that 53 percent of Americans now believe that the United States will ultimately achieve its aims in Iraq compared to 39 percent who think it will fail. As The Politico points out, this is the highest level of support for the war since the summer of 2006.

This shift in opinion combined with Admiral Fallon’s departure makes it far more likely that the United States will not quit Iraq prematurely. Certainly, we can expect only limited troop draw downs before January 2009. This should mean that even if Clinton or Obama wins the presidency and decides to instantly bring home a brigade or two there should still be sufficient US troops there to ensure that all the gains of the surge are not squandered. However, the uptick in support for the war also suggests that Clinton and Obama—who are still competing for the affection of a solidly anti-war primary electorate—might find themselves on the wrong side of public opinion on this issue come the general election. 

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