The last three winners of the Bet365 Cambridgeshire have triumphed at odds of 40-1, 40-1 again and 25-1. Earlier this century there were even bigger priced winners: 100-1 in 2004 and 50-1 in 2017. So don’t be surprised if the race throws up another shock result tomorrow (Newmarket 3.40 p.m.).
I have already put up one horse – Oviedo – for the race and Ed Bethell’s three-year-old colt looks almost certain to have his perfect ground conditions of ‘good to firm’. However, just as things were looking promising, the big downside is that he has now seemingly been given the worst draw of all in stall one (high numbers are usually favoured on the straight course).
In a 35-horse handicap, it’s perfectly reasonable to go in double handed and the other horse I like is at a big price: 25-1. ZOZIMUS has produced two fine runs in his most recent races, being runner-up at Haydock and filling the same position at Beverley before that.
These two runs earlier this month offer no guarantee that he will stay a fast run one mile one furlong race but, delve back into his form for Donnacha O’Brien two years ago, and you will see you not only ran in the Cambridgeshire but he was fourth in the 2021 running of the race at odds of 100-1. He seemed to love the course, distance and ground (good to firm) that day and, drawn in berth 4, actually ‘won’ his race of the 11 runners racing on the unfavoured far side.
A repetition of that run off a 10 lbs lower mark of 84 would put him in with a huge chance tomorrow. Zozimus will come out of stall 20 with 5lbs claimer Aiden Brookes in the saddle. With David O’Meara’s yard in sparkling form, back the five-year-old gelding each way at 25-1 with Coral or Ladbrokes, both paying six places.
If there is a group horse in the field, it is surely Greek Order, the favourite, who is on a hattrick and may have been let in lightly off a rating of 95. Saga, who has Ryan Moore in the saddle, is capable of winning for the King and Queen even off his big weight if putting in his all, but that’s a big ‘if’ judged on his two most recent runs. However, he ran his best race of the season over this course and distance in May and a repetition of that performance would see him make the frame.
There are two Group one two-year-old races to savour tomorrow at Newmarket too: the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (2.25 p.m.) and the Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (3 p.m.) but they are not my ‘bag’.
As regular readers know, I prefer to tackle the ‘impossible’ big-field handicaps and so my second bet is for next week’s Ascot Challenge Cup (October 7). The seven-furlong race on the straight course will almost certainly attract a maximum field of 18 runners, all chasing a first prize of more than £92,000.
Quinault, who has already notched up a remarkable seven handicap wins this season, could easily make it eight in this contest if he runs – but, according to handler Stuart Williams, he has options in two other races next month.
So the one I want to be on is Ed Walker’s POP.M.ASTER, who was second to Quinault at Ascot in his penultimate run. However, the five-year-old grey gelding then showed improved from last weekend to win a Listed race at Newbury. He will carry a 6 lbs penalty for that victory when he runs at Ascot, but is still 3 lbs ‘well in’ compared with future handicaps.
Pop.m.aster is improving at a rate of knots and this Ascot race is very much his next target, according to his trainer earlier this week. Back him two points win at 14-1 with William Hill.
My two tips for this weekend’s ‘Arc’ meeting in Paris have, fortunately, both been declared for their respective races and this wonderful annual fixture was covered in last week’s blog. Westover will be favoured by the drying ground but a draw in stall 1, although better than an outside ‘car park’ draw, will make life difficult for his jockey, Rob Hornby. Only one horse in the past 35 years has won from this rail berth.
‘Gay Icarus’, a loyal reader of this column, says he will be in Paris this weekend for the Arc meeting. Lucky him and anyone else who is fortunate enough to be there for what is sure to be a day of racing to savour.
2023 flat season running total: – 29.62 points.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
Pending:
2 points win Oviedo at 16-1 for the bet365 Cambridgeshire.
1 point each way Zozimus at 25-1 for the bet365 Cambridgeshire, paying six places.
2 points win Westover at 9-1 for the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe.
1 point each way Makarova at 33-1 for the Prix de l’Abbaye, paying 3 places.
Settled bets from last week:
1 point each way Bernardo O’Reilly at 16-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup, paying 6 places. 4th. + 2.2 points.
1 point each way Jump the Gun at 8-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Silver Cup, paying 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2 points win Juan Les Pins at 20-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup. NR. – 2 points.
2 points win Aleezdancer at 16-1 in the Virgin Bet Ayr Gold Cup. Unplaced. – 2 points.
My gambling record for the seven and a half years: I have made a profit in 14 of the past 15 seasons to recommended bets. To a one point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 523 points. All bets are either one point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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