James Forsyth

A Tory landslide looks increasingly likely

A Tory landslide looks increasingly likely
Text settings
Comments

It has been rather obscured by the torrent of bad economic news and Obama’s inauguration but the Tories appear increasingly set for a decisive victory. It now appears almost impossible that the British economy will start to grow again in the third quarter of this year as Brown and Darling predicted in the PBR. Instead, an optimistic scenario now would have growth resuming in 2010—a pessimistic one would push the recovery as far back as 2012. This means that voters will have not felt the effects of the recovery when they go to the polls. 

In these circumstances it is unsurprising that the odds on a Tory victory are the shortest they have been since Gordon Brown became Prime Minister, the betting markets are predicting a Tory majority of 50 odd seats and Tim Montgomerie thinks it will be a hundred.

UK Polling Report’s polling average has the Tories 11 points ahead and on course for a 52 seat majority. You would expect the Tory lead to expand as the reality of the recession starts to kick in. Add to that, that the return of Ken Clarke in the reshuffle has lessened the impact of the novice card—one of Labour’s strongest attacks—and you sense that the Tories could be on course for a huge, possibly three figure majority.

Written byJames Forsyth

James Forsyth is Political Editor of the Spectator. He is also a columnist in The Sun.

Comments
Topics in this articleSociety