After Starmer: what’s next for Labour?

Sometimes a plan can be too successful. When Durham police announced on the day of the local election results that they would investigate Keir Starmer over ‘beergate’ – an event in April last year where Starmer was filmed drinking a beer with Labour staff, at a time when indoor socialising was banned – Tory MPs were delighted. After months of Starmer attacking the government for partygate and demanding Boris Johnson’s resignation, it was the Labour leader’s turn to face allegations that he broke Covid rules. ‘Delicious,’ as one member of government put it.

The initial hope in Conservative Campaign Headquarters was that a police investigation into beergate would silence Labour MPs’ calls for resignations and stop them scoring points from the sidelines. The Tories can claim some victory on that front: party-gate didn’t come up in the leaders’ exchanges following this week’s Queen’s Speech. Voters might conclude that Starmer and Johnson are as bad as each other. The first poll since the news of the Durham police investigation showed Labour’s lead over the Tories had dropped to just one point.

But since last week, Tory strategists have started to worry. What if Starmer actually resigned, as he has promised to do if he is fined? That would raise awkward questions about Johnson clinging on. Ministers doing the broadcast rounds were told to avoid questioning Starmer’s future and instead focus on the accusation that he is a hypocrite.

Starmer’s team believed he had no choice but to put his future in the hands of the police, since he has called not just for Johnson to resign but also Rishi Sunak, who was fined for the offence of turning up early to a meeting where birthday cake was served. The bet might pay off: Durham police have shown restraint in the past, as Dominic Cummings found out after his trip to Barnard Castle.