All eyes on Hollande

Have you noticed the weird hold that François Hollande has over our politics? If you haven’t, then let me tell you: his name has been almost inescapable in Westminster over the past couple of weeks. Even in PMQs this week, David Cameron and Ed Miliband couldn’t resist of spot of Hollandery.

Behind-the-scenes, too, there is much consideration being given to how the new French President should be treated. Political strategists recognise, as I’ve suggested before, that his election could be a significant moment in the life of the Eurozone and the European Union. Potentially, it’s the moment when the supranational consensuses of the past couple of years broke down, leading to a starker divide between those who fundamentally back austerity and those who, to some extent, rebuff it. It’s going to be difficult for British politicians not to take sides.

And, as it happens, we’ve had some more insights into that process today. Ahead of the G8 summit, Downing Street stressed that they would impede any attempt by Hollande to introduce an EU-wide financial transactions tax. Whereas, in the FT, Ed Miliband writes approvingly of Hollande’s ‘focus on jobs and growth’. What’s more, the Labour leader sets himself against what he calls the ‘Cameron-Merkel-Sarkozy approach’ to solving Europe’s problems.

So, our Tory Prime Minister is sceptical of the socialist French President, while the Labour leader approves of him? That’s hardly surprising. But there is one area of striking overlap between the Tories and Labour when it comes to Hollande. Both are denying that he’s, well, a deficit denier. Here’s how Cameron put it yesterday:

‘If you take France, even with the election of a socialist President in France, he’s actually said, “How am I going to stimulate the economy? I’m not going to do it through extra public spending, because actually we’ve got to cut back on that”. And his target for balancing his budget is actually a faster target than the one we have here in the UK.’

And here’s what one Labour aide said to the Guardian’s Patrick Wintour recently:

‘He is hardly a deficit denier, but he can bring a welcome influence to bear on the communiqués that will emerge from the G8 and G20 shortly. Just as Gordon Brown’s departure changed their tone, so can Hollande’s arrival.’

Which is to say, both sides are hedging when it comes to Hollande, but for different reasons. The Tories may not naturally like him, but it suits them to create an impression of global unity on deficit reduction. Whereas Labour may love him, but they don’t want the free-spending caricature of the French President to be attached to them, lest it scare off the public.

The question now — so far as Hollande’s status as a barometer for our own politics is concerned — is whether this changes. If France starts to sink, then the Tories might find it more useful to portray him as a deficit-denying bogeyman. But if the French President retains some degree of popularity, then Labour might go further in importing his rhetoric wholesale. Vive la différence, as they say.