There is a deep divide in Republican circles about how to think about the 2008 election result. Some argue that the results show just how close to becoming a rump party of the Deep South the GOP is. Others say that considering the economic crisis, the drag on the ticket that was the Bush presidency, the failings of the McCain campaign and Obama’s skills as a candidate to lose 53-46 in the popular vote was not that bad a result.
I think the former group have the more convincing argument because of the ways in which America is changing. Just consider this from Ron Brownstein:
“To grasp how powerfully demographic change is reshaping the political landscape try this thought experiment about the 2008 election.
Start by considering the electorate’s six broadest demographic groups — white voters with at least a four-year college degree; white voters without a college degree; African-Americans; Hispanics; Asians; and other minorities.
Now posit that each of those groups voted for Barack Obama or John McCain in exactly the same proportions as it actually did. Then imagine that each group represented the share of the electorate that it did in 1992. If each of these groups voted as it did in 2008 but constituted the same share of the electorate as in 1992, McCain would have won. Comfortably.” If they are to win again, the Republicans need to broaden their coalition. That is going to involve a more compelling economic agenda, finding a way to present socially conservative policies that doesn’t alienate college educated voters and recovering their reputation for competence. But it is also going to require not alienating voters through crass language and behaviour. Flaps like the one over the stupid and offensive Magic Negro CD do huge harm to the party.
PS Parties have always changed. The Reagan Republican party was very different from Eisenhower’s and Clinton Democrats relied on a different coalition than Carter.
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