People who buy shares in a company just because its share price is already rising are liable to be made fools of. People who puff the future prospects of the United Kingdom Independence party just because those prospects are better now than they were a year ago may be making a similar mistake.
I’ve enjoyed the flutter in Tory, Labour and Liberal Democrat dovecotes provoked by the Ukip fox in last week’s elections. To watch feathers flying among the ranks of our classe politique is always a pleasure, and I happen to think an uncomplicatedly anti-EU party has every right to exist. This one is set to exercise an influence on the course of both Labour and Tory policy towards Europe. But a cool view should be taken of Ukip’s likely progress towards its declared destination: getting into Parliament, and getting out of Europe. There is, however, one issue on which it may find headway still to be made, an issue which should worry Michael Howard more than European integration: to this I shall return in a moment.

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