Any other business: Not so negative outlook as trade picks up and protestors pack their tents

Time for one of my periodic round-ups of relatively good news, as the last of the snow melts and confused bluebell and daffodil shoots that appeared in mild December begin to raise their heads once more. On Tuesday morning you could almost hear them squeaking, ‘Look out, here comes Ed Balls again’, as the shadow chancellor ranted about the ‘negative outlook’ warning that Moody’s has issued against its triple-A rating for UK public debt.

But Balls said nothing in his Today interview about two other forecasts. The CBI is now predicting growth of 0.2 per cent in this quarter and the next, following a dismal minus 0.2 per cent in October to December — which means we’re still ‘flatlining’, to use Balls’s favourite word, but we should avoid the consecutive negative quarters that would constitute the double-dip recession on which he has pinned his career prospects. CBI chief John Cridland thinks the low point of the cycle might have been last October, and that data from manufacturers and exporters show ‘very tentative signs of a pick-up’ since December. And the OECD — generally inclined to gloom — endorsed the CBI view by including a minor upgrade of UK prospects in a global survey which pointed to a  ‘positive change in momentum’ at the end of last year.

Another fall in inflation, to 3.6 per cent, is also a useful boost. So take your pick, but remember that ratings agencies like Moody’s, having disgraced themselves by awarding triple-As to all manner of toxic garbage during the subprime boom, are these days big in the pessimism business. Meanwhile, the global uptick is being driven by undeniable signs of recovery in the US. Almost a quarter of million new American jobs were added in January, positive retail sales figures were expected this week, and manufacturing output has been improving.