Arctic treasure quest as the sea ice retreats

For centuries, intrepid explorers went in search of Arctic treasure — but pursued only a mirage. From the time of Marco Polo, numerous expeditions were made to map a mythical Northwest Passage between east and west, but many ended in tragedy and a viable route was never found. Others vainly scoured neighbouring lands for fabulous gems. Martin Frobisher, for example, sailed there in 1577 to find gold but returned only with worthless iron pyrite — infuriating Queen Elizabeth, who lost a large investment.

Today, however, hopes are raised that climate change could at last make such dreams a reality. Many scientists are convinced that, as the ice retreats, the region can soon be properly explored and vast natural resources exploited. And there is speculation that before long the Northwest Passage and Russia’s Northern Sea Route could offer cargo ships a shortcut to the Far East, bypassing the Suez and Panama canals. Right now, vessels belonging to a Bremen-based shipper, Beluga, are moving along Russia’s northern coasts without icebreaker assistance to test the route.

But like their predecessors, today’s merchant adventurers also risk being seduced by a mirage in the Arctic. True, sea ice is vanishing — it reaches its annual minimum at this time of year, and now covers around two thirds of the area it covered 30 years ago — but business opportunities in the region remain limited and their prospects overhyped.

For example, it is likely to be several decades, perhaps half a century or more, before much of the Arctic Ocean is ice-free for most, let alone all, of the year. Climate change seems to be changing how ice is formed — its thickness, and how much survives from one year to the next — but the latest computer models strongly suggest that the region will remain frozen over in winter for a long time to come.