This hasn’t been the easiest week for Hezbollah. It started with the terror organisation’s pagers mysteriously exploding, killing 37 people people (according to official reports) and injuring some 3,000 people, mostly members of the group. This has stunned Hezbollah – and the world. A day later, their walkie-talkies starting blowing up too.
The attacks, which have been attributed to Israel, are a serious security breech and have humiliated Hezbollah. In response, the organisation’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah conceded today that Hezbollah has suffered a considerable blow and accused Israel of ‘crossing the red line,’ adding that they actions could be viewed as a ‘declaration of war.’
Israeli officials declared yesterday that a new phase in the conflict against Hezbollah has started. Following from the explosions, today Israel attacked several Hezbollah targets in Lebanon, with Israeli fighter jets flying in the sky over Beirut during Nasrallah’s speech. Hezbollah has also fired into Israel earlier today, killing two soldiers.
The big question is, has full-scale war now started?
Israel and Hezbollah have been on the brink of war since 8 October. Soon after Hamas’s invasion into Israel and the brutal killing and kidnapping of some 1,400 Israelis and foreign nationals, Hezbollah started attacking Israel with missiles and drones. The attacks have led to widespread destruction in Israel’s northers towns, the evacuation of some 60,000 Israelis and to numerous death and injuries among civilians and soldiers. However, Hezbollah was careful not to cross the line that would make an escalation unavoidable.
Israel adopted a similar position. Israeli actions have for the most part shown restraint and included limited attacks against key facilities and Hezbollah commanders. The attacks this week were the most widespread since the war. The ability of Israeli intelligence agencies to infiltrate Hezbollah and rig their equipment would’ve had a significant psychological effect. But was the ultimate goal to start a war?
This seems unlikely. Despite the significant threat posed by Hezbollah, which is larger and more powerful than Hamas, Israeli Prime Minster Benjamin Netanyahu doesn’t seem interested in a full-scale war on a second front, in part due to American pressure. If Israel wanted to start a war, it might have started one following this week’s attacks, while the organisation is in chaos and many of its members are unable to fight or communicate with each other. Today’s strikes were on a very small scale not the beginning of a war.
It’s more likely that of all this week’s attacks were meant to deter Hezbollah
It’s more likely that of all this week’s attacks were meant to deter Hezbollah and to convince them to reach a diplomatic solution that will include a ceasefire and the removal of forces away from the border with Israel. Nasarallah has spent the past 11 months insisting that a ceasefire will only happen when Israel reaches a deal with Hamas. Israel is trying to break the link between the two conflicts, and to reach a deal with Hezbollah as fast as possible in order to enable the safe return of civilians to northern Israel.
Hezbollah’s humiliation was significant, but Nasrallah was very careful in the language he used today. He did not declare a war or claim that Israel has started one. It’s therefore likely that even though Nasrallah still wants to avoid a full scale war, Hezbollah will regroup and retaliate in an attempt to save some its remaining dignity. Although Nasrallah is a cautious man, who likes to take his time when planning attacks, and also to use the time between making threats and acting on them for psychological warfare, he may act quickly this time because all eyes are on him.
The conflict may escalate in the next few days, but will remain limited. However, just in case things do escalate further, Israel has already amassed significant forces by the border. If Israel’s strikes fail to push Nasrallah to agree to a deal, the standoff between the two sides will continue, and there’s no telling how many more rabbits Israel can pull out of its hat.
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