It’s a sign of the tensions within the parliamentary Conservative party that talk of colleagues swapping constituencies is currently a major talking point in the Commons tea rooms. This week two more members of the 2019 Tory intake announced that they would not be seeking re-election in their constituencies. Both Nicola Richards and Stuart Anderson released lengthy statements explaining their decision – but neither MP explicitly ruled out standing again in another seat. Keiran Mullan has meanwhile declined to comment on claims that he will switch from Crewe and Nantwich to the new Chester South and Eddisbury seat.
Some Tories disparagingly refer to the ‘chicken run’ – the term coined to describe the trend of Conservative MPs fighting to secure safer seats ahead of New Labour’s landslide. David Amess, Nicholas Soames, Brian Mawhinney and George Young were among those who fought for new, safer seats in 1997, earning the label of ‘chicken’, fairly or not. But the key difference between then and now are the extent of the sweeping new boundary changes, which have abolished old seats and created new ones; unsettling numerous incumbents and forcing colleagues to go head-to-head in seats like Penrith and Solway. An especially complicated three-way contest in Hampshire – dubbed the ‘Battle of Waterlooville’ – is due to take place next month between incumbent Suella Braverman, Paul Holmes and Flick Drummond.
Conservative Campaign Headquarters has now established a ‘displacement committee’ to adjudicate on cases involving those MPs who wish to fight a different seat. Colleagues can argue their case for ‘displacement rules’; those unsuccessful can go on the wider candidates’ list. Those given such dispensation by the panel are either placed automatically in the final three candidates of another seat in their region of the country. Alternatively, they are granted an interview with the executive of an association in a different region.
Those involved in this process stress the efforts undertaken to try to ensure every elected member gets a fair shot; they cannot just switch constituencies on a whim and could end up without a seat to stand in. But there are signs that such arguments have not been well received by all MPs. ‘There is real and growing anger in the parliamentary party about all of this’ says one. ‘The optics are that we’re giving up on marginal seats and makes it incredibly difficult for whoever is the new local candidate.’
As well as the scepticism of their colleagues, MPs trying to find new seats in different parts of the country must contend with the modern trend for ‘local’ candidates. There is significant grassroots discontent over the recent membership fee hike, the high turnover in branch chairmen and the circumstances of the last two leadership contests. Activists might therefore be less inclined to aid the search for safe berths for incumbents. In 2019, only one MP – Mims Davies – was able to pull off the feat of successfully switching seats from Eastleigh to Mid Sussex, and that was due in part to the exceptional circumstances of the snap election.
Given the scale of the challenge facing Rishi Sunak, it is highly likely that we will see similar attempts by multiple incumbent MPs ahead of the 2024 election. The question is: will any of them actually succeed?
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