Are Sturgeon’s successors making the same errors?

Independence was the main focus at the first hustings of the SNP leadership race last night. Humza Yousaf called for a slower route to separation. Ash Regan clarified the workings of her ‘voter empowerment mechanism’. But Kate Forbes unveiled a more radical approach: announcing she would fight for another independence referendum within three months of the 2024 general election.

‘For too many years, we’ve become the party of referendums,’ Forbes said, ‘rather than the party of independence.’ But, in an apparent contradiction, she then pledged to ‘fight for the right’ to hold an independence vote within three months of the next general election. When pressed later, she confirmed that her strategy – notably similar to Sturgeon’s – would involve Forbes demanding a Section 30 order from the UK government. This would trigger the mechanism that would allow a second independence referendum to go ahead. But Sturgeon has already tried – and failed – with this approach, so what makes Forbes think her attempts will be successful? Like the other two candidates, Forbes has no way of ensuring that the UK government agree to her plan.