The Conservative Party is not an imaginative organisation. The clue is in the name. In response to an electoral disaster – like last week’s local election Götterdämmerung – its established method is to work through three familiar stages: pretend, Comical Ali-style, that everything is fine; begin plotting to oust the leader; and then smash the glass marked ‘bring back Boris Johnson’.
Having ticked off one and two, yesterday saw the unhappy launch of stage three. Politico have suggested a growing number of Tories, including MPs, are pining for the party’s ex-leader-but-two. No MP has gone public with a call to ‘Bring Back Boris’ quite yet. But there is an awareness that recapturing the spirit of the 2019 victory – and the Red Wall voters that entailed – is the only way to fend off the existential challenge of Reform UK. Such an argument has been boosterd by new polling from More in Common. Swapping Kemi Badenoch for Robert Jenrick, it suggests, would not dent Reform lead over the Tories. But parachuting in Johnson would see an eight-point Reform lead become a three-point Tory one.
To misquote The Spectator‘s incoming political editor, Tim Shipman, Johnson squats like a gigantic toad over the Conservative subconscious. The sheen of his 2019 victory will never wholly wear off. Nor will his star quality. He is the only Tory that one can guarantee that every voter has heard of. His loyal retainers have honed the ‘stab in the back’ myth: if only MPs hadn’t got spooked in 2022, Johnson would have wiped the floor with Keir Starmer last year. He remains encamped in Henley, the prince upon the Thames.
The Tories face an existential threat from a Nigel Farage-led party threatening to wipe them out. The last time this happened, it was Johnson that MPs turned to in desperation. If he really is the only leader who could save the Conservatives, is it not worth gambling again? Johnson himself has plenty of advice for how the Tories can win the next election – under Badenoch’s leadership, naturally.
Yet for the Tories to even entertain bringing back Johnson means embarking on a path down which only madness lies. It means wilfully forgetting the chaos of his dismal premiership. It means confronting a party surging into first place across the country due to unprecedented levels of immigration with the leader who, erm, introduced the post-Brexit visa system that enabled that migration. It would be an act of political seppuku – an admission the party is out of ideas.
Johnson’s groupies have very selective memories. Whatever his record, he remains frozen in aspic as an anti-establishment hero. His lack of interest in reducing immigration – and historic support for an illegal migrant amnesty – is forgotten, since the dreaded establishment is pro-immigration. His enthusiasm for Stonewall and net zero is ignored. He has made himself into a hero of the party’s right, despite revelling in being its most left-wing leader in decades.
His premiership was dogged by scandals, from Partygate to Chris Pincher, via wallpaper, rows over ministerial standards, and the Owen Paterson tergiversations, are a reminder of the baggage he brings. He ragequit the Commons before he could be found guilty of lying to the House. He worked through four chiefs of staff in three years. Once he’d fallen out with the Vote Leave team who got helped him get Brexit done, his government lost purpose. He dumped the only pro-growth reform his government proposed – liberalising housebuilding – at the first sign of backbench discontent.
In short, Johnson’s first stab at leading the Tories was not a success. The 2019 election was a victory from which his premiership never recovered. Brexit got done, but for what? Voters find him more personable than Kemi Badenoch, but that’s not the highest of bars to jump. His lead over Robert Jenrick can be explained by the gulf in name recognition between him and the latter. How long would that lead over Reform persist if Johnson was back in place? Farage would spend his every waking moment tying Johnson to the ‘Boriswave’. For any voters he gains from Farage, how many might he leak to the Lib Dems from anger at his, ahem, unique leadership style?
Opposition requires the careful management of parliamentary egos, the detailed development of policy and a plan for government, and the constant acquisition of media attention. For better or for worse, Johnson has Badenoch beaten on the latter. But he has not interested in the first two. Entertaining as he can be, he is not a serious politician. Bringing him back as leader would prove the Conservatives are not a serious party. The party’s future cannot be hostage to one man’s ego.
Fortunately for Badenoch, only current MPs can serve as Tory leader. Even if her leadership leaves much to be desired, she is still sensible enough never to let Johnson stand as a candidate again. Even then, one doubts a seat could be found safe enough for him to win it. But why take the chance?
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