Are we in for a shock tomorrow?

Raleigh, North Carolina

For a long time, many observers have had tomorrow marked down as the day that the Democratic primary would end. It was thought, and rightly, that Clinton couldn’t survive a double-loss. But the conventional wisdom is now that Hillary will win Indiana and that she’s closing strongly on Obama in North Carolina. Certainly, Obama’s final event in North Carolina, which I was at earlier, was surprisingly low key and his campaign seems oddly flat on the ground. I’m off to a Bill Clinton event in a few hours and I’ll be intrigued to see if Bill is prepared to make any bold predictions about how Hillary will do here.

If Obama doesn’t win North Carolina by a larger margin that Clinton wins Indiana then there will be a renewed emphasis on his vulnerabilities and with many of the remaining contests on favourable ground for Clinton the chances of her winning the nomination will definitely tick up.