Cambridge professor of the public understanding of risk David Spiegelhalter recently made the point that, given the uncertainties over exactly what constitutes a death from coronavirus, the number we should we watching is the ONS’s figure for deaths from all causes. That, he argued, will give us the surest indication as to the progress of the epidemic. For anyone minded to take his advice, the ONS’s figure for deaths from all causes fell again in the week ending 1 May for the second week running. In England and Wales, 17,953 deaths were registered, down from 21,997 in the week ending 24 April and 22,351 in the week ending 17 April. These figures more or less point in the same direction as the government’s figures for Covid-19 deaths: they show a peak in the middle of April followed by a shallow decline – noticeably shallower, that is, than the rising curve of the epidemic.
The weakness of Spiegelhalter’s argument is that the deaths-from-all-causes statistic includes excess deaths which might be linked to lockdown and panic, not just those caused directly by the virus. Once again, the ONS figures indicate that these could be substantial. Over the past five years the average number of deaths in the week to 1 May was 9941. This year we had an extra 8012 deaths, yet only 6035 deaths – to judge by the deceased person’s death certificate – could be attributed to Covid-19. Therefore, it seems as if we could be seeing 2000 excess deaths a week from other causes. Doctors have repeatedly warned in recent weeks of the low numbers of people visiting A&E departments and expressed their fears that many people are failing to seek medical attention when they should be – possibly as a result of taking the government’s erstwhile slogan ‘Stay at Home, Protect the NHS’ a little too much to heart.
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