Ground conditions at both Warwick and Kempton Park are likely to decide the winners of the two big weekend handicaps tomorrow. A month ago, clerks of the course and groundsmen up and down the country feared it might never rain again. Now it seems to pour almost every day and, as a result, it is essential to back horses that revel in the mud.
The big race at Warwick tomorrow is the Wigley Group Classic Handicap Chase (3 p.m.) over a marathon trip of 3 miles 5 furlongs. With the going already ‘heavy, soft in places’ and with more rain forecast, only gritty battlers who can handle the ground are going to play a hand in the finish.
Step forward LORD DU MESNIL who can’t have the ground soft enough, and who ran a lovely race on his seasonal debut to be second to the well-handicapped Le Milos.
That horse from the Dan Skelton yard went on to win the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury (that’s the Hennessy in old money) and so there is nothing wrong with the form.
Lord du Mesnil, a ten-year-old gelding trained by Richard Hobson, would be a more confident selection if this race was being run at Haydock, the horse’s favourite track. But the 8-1, five places, being offered by Sky Bet, is tempting enough for me to have a financial interest in the race.
There are plenty of dangers including Grumpy Charley, who did this column a big favour when winning two weeks ago after being put up at 12-1. But this brutal contest might just come too soon even for this hardy campaigner.
Guetapan Collonges, an improver from the in-form Charlie Longsdon yard, and Notachance, who won this race in 2021 for trainer Alan King and is well handicapped once again, both have strong shouts in a competitive contest.
At a bigger price (22-1 in places), Volcano is interesting. Four of his five chase wins have come at Warwick, two of them over tomorrow’s marathon trip. My one concern for him though is that he may not want the ground to be quite this heavy to show his best form.
At Kempton, where the big race is the Coral Lanzarote Handicap Hurdle (2.40 p.m.), the going is described as ‘soft’ and, once again, there is more of the wet stuff forecast before the off.
At a big price (18-1 with some bookies), I was tempted to put up Quinta Do Mar from the in-form Ben Pauling yard. He will have been laid out for this contest but he was well beaten in third place off the same rating of 135 when falling at the final hurdle in this race last year.
There will probably be one or two better handicapped horses tomorrow and my selection is instead another mud-lover, DUBROVNIK HARRY.
Harry Fry’s seven-year-old gelding had been expected to have a first season as a chaser but, after one moderate run over the larger obstacles, his talented handler has decided to put him back over hurdles.
This track, ground and distance should suit him well and the suggestion is to back him each way at 8-1, again with Sky Bet which this time is paying no less than seven places.
Once again, there are plenty of dangers and the Irish raider Green Glory is likely to go off favourite as his shrewd trainer, Charles Byrnes, loves nothing better to land a big pot and a gamble for connections.
Elsewhere, regular readers will know that I am a great fan of Evan Williams’s gelding Annsam. He will be better off going right-handed than he was going left-handed when sixth in the Coral Gold Cup last time out and he is really well handicapped off a rating of 135.
But his odds in the Coral Racing Club Handicap Chase tomorrow (Kempton 1.30 p.m.) have halved to as short as 3-1 in the past couple of days and so I will, reluctantly, give him a miss this time around as he has plenty of talented opponents.
These include Chris Honour’s Tile Tapper, who is described by the trainer as ‘the apple of his eye’ and who is easily capable of landing a prize of this nature. Once more, however, he is a horse who may not want the ground quite this squelchy.
Enjoy the weekend racing but, if you are betting, make sure your hard-earned pennies are invested only in mud-lovers.
Pending bets:
1 point each way Lord du Mesnil at 8-1 in the Warwick 3 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places.
1 point each way Dubrovnik Harry at 8-1 in the Kempton 2.40 p.m. race, paying 1/5 odds, 7 places.
1 point each way Corach Rambler at 20-1 in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places.
1 point each way Lifetime Ambition at 33-1in the Aintree Grand National, paying 1/5 odds, five places.
Settled:
1 point each way Hill Sixteen in the Becher Chase at 11-1, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (7th). – 2 points.
2 points win Annsam at 8-1 for the Howden Silver Cup. Cancelled meeting. Stake returned.
1 point each way Eldorado Allen at 20-1 in the King George VI Chase, paying 1/5 odds, 3 places. Unplaced (4th). – 2 points.
1 point each way The Big Breakaway in 20-1 for the Welsh Grand National at 20-1, paying 1/5 odds, five places. 2nd. + 3 points.
1 point each way The Big Dog at 12-1 in the Welsh Grand National, paying 1/4 odds, four places. 3rd. + 2 points.
1 point each way Grumpy Charley at 12-1 in the Newbury 2.25 p.m. paying 1/5 odds, five places. 1st + 16.4 points.
2 points win Midnight River at 5-1 for the Cheltenham 1.55 p.m., with Skybet. 1st. + 10 points.
1 point each way Coconut Splash at 12-1 in the Cheltenham 1.55 on Sunday, with William Hill, paying 1/5 odds, six places. Unplaced (P). – 2 points.
1 point each way Sir Ivan at 20-1 in the Sandown 3 p.m. tomorrow, paying 1/5 odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
2022-3 jumps season, running total + 25.4 points.
My gambling record for the seven years: I have made a profit in 13 of the past 14 seasons to recommended bets. To a one-point level stake over this period, the profit of has been just over 469 points. All bets are either one-point each way or two-points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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