Barroso’s EU confidence trick

Say what you like about Jose Manuel Barroso, he’s a wily old card. The European Commission president makes public demands for Britain to surrender its rebate in European Union membership fees. The government refuses. Then, hey presto! Headlines suggesting that Brussels has been seen off. “Brussels bribe to buy off UK rebate,” says the Daily Mail. “Britain’s rebate is fully justified and we are not going to give way on it,” a Treasury spokesman tells the media. The quotation is true, Barroso did indeed offer £23 billion to tweak the UK funding formula, and a short-termist like Gordon Brown might have accepted. But the battle for Britain’s EU spending was lost under Blair. In 2001-02, Britain was a net beneficiary of EU to the tune of £900 million. The next year, the cost of EU membership soared to £3.4 billion. By 2004-05 it was £5.7 billion and in 2009-10 it was £6.6 billion. It’s rising even more. Consider that the total defence cuts will save £2.4 billion: this is masses of cash. And for what? The following data is from the European Commission’s own opinion poll, asking the same question of every member state: has your country benefited from EU membership? Britain is paying billions for membership of a club that most of us think isn’t helping at all.

Hence, I suspect, this is Barroso’s tactic. He knows that, in this era of supposed austerity, EU membership is a cost that most Brits think their country could live without. So the more headlines the British government can secure about boldly defending the rebate, the less the average Brit is likely to know how much they are being charged for EU membership (none of today’s stories carried this figure). To get what you want in negotiations, always demand something you were never likely to be given. The problem for Barroso is that the patience of the British people (as opposed to the coalition government) is wearing thin. Britain is, demonstrably and by some margin, the most reluctant member of the EU. Yet Britain is one of the EU’s largest paymasters. I suspect Barroso will have a few more stunts like this in store. As he knows, if the British public is asked if we can afford the £6.6 billion membership fee for the EU, then the answer will be rather clear.