Tamfana is just the sort of short-priced favourite that I love to take on. Yes, of course she might win tomorrow’s Sky Bet Atalanta Stakes (Sandown, 2.25 p.m.). After all, she was fourth in the Qipco 1000 Guineas at Newmarket in May and, with more luck in running, she would probably have won that day.
However, her two runs since then have been more moderate and her French handler David Menuisier, who trains in West Sussex, seems unsure what is his three-year-old filly’s best distance. Last time she failed to stay a mile and a half on soft ground at Longchamp and so tomorrow she reverts to the Guineas trip of a mile.
All in all, her current odds of around even money are terribly skinny for a horse that has yet to win this season from four starts. I accept that tomorrow Sandown’s race is a drop in class to Grade 3 but still she will still not carry a penny of my hard earned. In any case, there is potential for a modest profit on an each-way bet even if Tamfana does win comfortably.
The only trouble is which horse to take on the favourite with because there are several candidates among the nine-strong field capable of beating her, yet none of her rivals has really solid credentials.
At first glance, Jane Chapple-Hyam’s Rolica looked interesting because she was sixth in the 1000 Guineas and, after only four career runs, the three-year-old has plenty of scope for improvement. But, somewhat worrying, her trainer is on the “cold list” with no winners for 41 runners and 48 days.
Bright Thunder is the second highest rated horse in the race on official figures but she was slightly disappointing when only 9th of the 12 runners at Longchamp last time out when a well-backed favourite. Admittedly, she was denied a clear run at a crucial stage and eased when her chance had gone.
Of the older fillies, Choisya and Doha both have a shout but my marginal preference is for another four-year-old in the shape of William Haggas’s DOOM. She has a bit to find on official ratings but she is both improving and consistent. Although several of the trainer’s runners at York’s Ebor meeting ran below expectations, his horses are running better now.
There was plenty to like about Doom’s last run when second in an Ascot Group 3, just a neck ahead of one of her rivals tomorrow, Naomi Lapaglia. On balance, back the beautifully-bred Doom each way at 10-1 with bet365, Sky Bet and BetVictor.
The Livescore Bet Handicap tomorrow (Chester, 2.40 p.m.) has attracted a competitive 16-strong field because there is more than £50,000 on offer to connections of the winning horse.
Carrytheone is the forecast favourite for this seven and a half furlongs contest but, although talented, he usually finds a way to get beaten. I would rather be on TWO TEMPTING from the Jonathan Portman yard even though the Upper Lambourn trainer has gone 31 runs and 32 days since his last winner.
The five-year-old gelding has already won three decent races this season and was all dressed up with nowhere to go two furlongs from home in the Coral Golden Mile at Glorious Goodwood earlier this month. To add insult to injury, Two Tempting then got baulked just before the furlong pole so, all in all his seventh place, was a good run.
Two Tempting has not raced over Chester’s tight twists and turns before but the course could suit him if jockey Rob Hornby can sit just behind the leaders coming into the short straight. Back the horse each way at 12-1 with SkyBet, paying six places, one more place than most other bookies laying the same price.
Finally, I am keen on a horse in the Qatar Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp on October 6. Look De Vega is an unbeaten three-year-old and will be all the rage to give France a home victory in Europe’s most valuable race, worth nearly £2.5 million for the winner. He’s going to take a lot of beating if he arrives on his A game for only the fourth run of his career.
However, I prefer to back AL RIFFA from the Jospeh O’Brien yard, especially after the Irish handler indicated this week that this race has been the horse’s aim all year and he will go straight to the Arc.
Al Riffa ran well against the French hot-pot Ace Impact when runner-up at Deauville last year and he filled the same place behind City of Troy in the Group 1 Coral Eclipse at Sandown early last month despite losing a shoe. After that, the four-year-old colt stepped up in trip winning a decent Group 1 in Germany earlier this month.
In short, Al Riffa’s form looks rock solid and I like the fact that he is not ground dependent. Provided he gets a fair draw in the Arc, I expect him to outrun his odds and so take the 14-1 each way offered by Sky Bet, William Hill, Betfred, Ladbrokes and Coral.
Next week, I intend to take an early look at my favourite Flat handicap of the season, the Club Godolphin Cesarewitch at Newmarket over a marathon trip of two miles and two furlongs.
Pending:
1 point each way Doom at 10-1 for the Sky Bet Atalanta Stakes, paying 1/5th odd, 3 places.
1 point each way Two Tempting at 12-1 for the Livescore Bet Handicap, paying 1/5th odd, 6 places.
1 point each way Al Riffa at 14-1 for the Qatar Prix de L’Arc de Triomphe, paying 1/5th odd, 3 places
Last weekend: – 6.8 points.
1 point each way Paborus at 17-2 for the Sky Bet Mile Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Naqeeb at 16-1 for the Ebor Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Chillingham at 20-1 for the Ebor Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Oviedo at 17-2 for the Sky Bet Finale Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 5 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Dual Identity at 11-1 for the Sky Bet Finale Handicap, paying 1/5th odds, 6 places. 2nd. + 1.2 points.
2024 flat season running total + 1.6 points.
2023-4 jumps season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jumps season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
My gambling record for the past eight years: I have made a profit in 15 of the past 17 seasons to recommended bets. To a 1 point level stake over this period, the overall profit of has been 517 points. All bets are either 1 point each way or 2 points win (a ‘point’ is your chosen regular stake).
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