It is the last of the five British classic races tomorrow – the Group 1 Betfred St Leger at Doncaster (3.40 p.m.) over one mile and six furlongs. The race has attracted a line-up of only seven runners, which normally means just two places on offer from bookmakers.
If this had been the case tomorrow, it would have made each way betting unattractive and I would have given the race a miss from a betting point of view. However, at least three bookmakers are offering three places for each-way thieves like me which means there might be some value to be found.
Irish maestro Aidan O’Brien is responsible for three of the four runners at the top of the market: Scandinavia, Lambourn and STAY TRUE. All have chances and Lambourn did this blog a big good turn when winning the Betfred Derby back in early June after being put up at 10-1.
On balance, however, I think the outsider of the O’Brien trio, Stay True, is the best value bet tomorrow. He looks a slightly fragile colt in that he did not run as a two-year-old and has only run three times this season, aged three.
However, it is his last run that was full of promise when, after a break from the race track of 102 days, he was a close fourth to Pride or Arras last month at York in the Group 2 Sky Bet Great Voltigeur Stakes, a traditional prep race for the St Leger.
If French jockey Mickael Barzalona can get Stay True to settle better tomorrow than he did on his most recent run, then the colt will have a big chance. Back Stay True 1 point each way at 8-1 with Betfred, paying three places.
At a bigger price, the Roger Varian trained Rahiebb could outrun his odds of up to 28-1, provided you are prepared to forgive him his poor run last time out. The drying ground and distance are in his favour but his credentials are not quite strong enough for me to recommend a second bet in the race.
In Ireland tomorrow, Leopardstown also hosts a big Group 1 contest in the shape of the Royal Bahrain Irish Champion Stakes (5.30 p.m.) over one mile and two furlongs. I have already put up a bet in the race in the shape of the Owen Burrows-trained Anmaat at 7-1.
I am very happy with that bet now that the rain has come and the Anmaat’s odds have virtually halved in a week. Here’s hoping for a big run from a horse that loves soft ground.
The Aidan O’Brien trained Delacroix is a worthy favourite for the race while another British raider, Royal Champion trained by Karl Burke, looks overpriced given the easy nature of his win at York in July in the Group 2 Sky Bet York Stakes. If you take that form at face value, Royal Champion will have a big shout tomorrow but the soft ground is a worry for his chances because all his best form is on a quicker terrain.
I have had a look at the early entries on Qipco British Champions Day next month in the hope of picking out a horse at a big price but with little inspiration to date. However, I am going to stay loyal to horse that did this blog a favour when winning on her last run after being put up at 7-1 for a Group 2 contest early last month.
Trainer Owen Burrows’ WAARDAH had the look of an improving filly when she won the Qatar Lillie Langtry Stakes at Glorious Goodwood. Along with the John and Thady Gosden trained Danielle, who could frank the form is she wins at Doncaster tomorrow, the pair pulled well clear of a decent field on ground described as good to soft.
I like the fact that Burrows has shown patience in waiting for Waardah to encounter ground with cut again – soft ground or worse is always likely, but no certain, by Champions Day.
Back Waardah 1 point each way at 8-1 with Coral, paying three places, for the Group 1 Qipco British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes on Saturday 18 October. The drop in trip to one mile four furlongs, compared with her win at Goodwood, should not inconvenience Waardah, especially if the ground is soft or heavy.
Pending:
1 point each way Stay True at 8-1 for the St Leger, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Anmaat at 7-1 for the Irish Champion Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
1 point each way Real Gain at 25-1 for the Cambridgeshire, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Divine Comedy at 20-1 for the Cesarewitch, paying ¼ odds, 4 places.
1 point each way Waardah at 8-1 for the British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places.
Last weekend: – 1 point.
1 point each way No Half Measures at 12-1 for the Sprint Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Unplaced. – 2 points.
1 point each way Nighteyes at 66-1 for the Sprint Cup, paying 1/5th odds, 3 places. Missed the cut as reserve and so stake returned. Quits.
1 point each way Stressfree at 8-1for the Old Borough Cup, paying ¼ odds, 4 places. 3rd. 1 point.
2025 flat season running total: + 87.62 points.
2024-5 jump season: – 47.61 points on all tips.
2024 flat season: + 41.4 points on all tips.
2023-4 jump season: + 42.01 points on all tips.
2023 flat season: – 48.22 points on all tips.
2022-3 jump season: + 54.3 points on all tips.
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