Boris in No. 10

Quietly and discreetly, the planning for Boris Johnson’s premiership has begun. No one wants to be seen measuring the curtains, but his team are confident he’ll be the choice of Tory party members. It would be the most spectacular upset if he is not. Boris has fixed a Brexit deadline — 31 October — and time is short so his aides are concentrating on what to do when — if — he makes it to No. 10.

The first few weeks in No. 10 are crucial for any prime minister, but particularly one who takes over in mid-term, without their own personal electoral mandate. Boris will have only 99 days to agree a Brexit deal that can pass through parliament, something which eluded Theresa May, with many MPs thinking that the government might collapse if he fails. So how will he do it? Or rather — who will do it? It’s well-known that Boris is a great devolver, so a lot will depend on whom he chooses as his chief of staff. But even his closest allies have no idea who this chief might be.

Johnson dislikes gurus and has always resisted having a single course of political advice, but to enter Downing Street with a coterie of ‘chief’ advisers all jostling for his attention would be to invite disaster. If his premiership is to succeed, he must have a clear and unambiguous chain of command from day one. Boris’s Achilles’ heel as a leader is that he dislikes disappointing people, so he’ll be reluctant to establish a hierarchy — but if he’s to survive as PM, let alone succeed, he must.

If it’s hard to tell who he’ll hire, it’s easier to work out what he’ll do. Many of his critics are quick to cast him as unprincipled, or as an opportunist who has ‘lurched to the right’.