Boris Johnson: an eminently likeable politician who poses little threat to David Cameron

Even Boris can’t help the toxic Tories. That’s the upshot of Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling, which asked 8,000 people (including several focus groups outside of London) about what they think of the mayor. Although Boris Johnson is the country’s most loved politician, he is not the voters’, or even Conservatives’, top choice as prime minister. David Cameron remains the favourite at 33 per cent to Boris’ 29:

Half of those polled said that if Johnson was leader of the Conservative party, it would ‘make no difference’ as to whether they were more or less likely to vote Conservative. This is a blow to the Cameron dissenters, who have always believed that Boris would encourage more people to vote Tory. The Evening Standard suggested last year that if Boris was Tory leader, six points could be added to the Tories’ polling. But, as Ashcroft explains in his analysis on Conservative Home, brand Boris may be able to transcend the Conservative party in London but it is unlikely to work at a national level.

If Boris did become Tory leader, would he improve his party’s prospects in a general election? 39 per cent believe that the Conservative party would be more likely to win a general election under Boris, but 36 per cent believe he would make no difference.