Even Boris can’t help the toxic Tories. That’s the upshot of Lord Ashcroft’s latest polling, which asked 8,000 people (including several focus groups outside of London) about what they think of the mayor. Although Boris Johnson is the country’s most loved politician, he is not the voters’, or even Conservatives’, top choice as prime minister. David Cameron remains the favourite at 33 per cent to Boris’ 29:
Half of those polled said that if Johnson was leader of the Conservative party, it would ‘make no difference’ as to whether they were more or less likely to vote Conservative. This is a blow to the Cameron dissenters, who have always believed that Boris would encourage more people to vote Tory. The Evening Standard suggested last year that if Boris was Tory leader, six points could be added to the Tories’ polling. But, as Ashcroft explains in his analysis on Conservative Home, brand Boris may be able to transcend the Conservative party in London but it is unlikely to work at a national level.
If Boris did become Tory leader, would he improve his party’s prospects in a general election? 39 per cent believe that the Conservative party would be more likely to win a general election under Boris, but 36 per cent believe he would make no difference. Interestingly, Ukip voters are the only group who believes Boris would improve the Conservatives’ standing.
Despite all this, Boris’s reputation has never been stronger. After David Cameron, Johnson is the most recognisable politician in the country — ahead of Ed Miliband, Nick Clegg and William Hague. Here is how he compares to the rest of the cabinet:
The figures also confirm what we’ve long suspected: Boris is regarded as a politically androgynous figure. A majority reckons that he supports a tougher approach to immigration, while his take on the EU and gay marriage are less clear. In reality, Boris was once a firm Eurospcetic — especially during his Daily Telegraph reporting days — but has recently sided with London’s businesses. He’s socially liberal and naturally supports gay marriage.
Ashcroft’s polling paints the clearest picture of Boris to date, confirming many things we already knew: ‘a people person’, ‘likeable’ and funny. But also ‘competent’, someone who ‘gets things done and suitable for high office. Despite being Mayor of London for five years, he’s still seen as an outsider. A rebel, even. As someone remarked at one of Ashcroft’s focus groups outside of London:
‘Boris was the one smoking behind the bike sheds, Cameron was the one reporting him to the teacher. That’s the impression you get.’
But there is scant evidence here to suggest that he would better Cameron’s performance in a general election. The clue to this report is in its name: Are You Serious? Boris’s joviality alone isn’t enough to convince his party or the country. Voters want more. The Prime Minister can breathe easy, for now.
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