Boris Johnson’s coalition of voters is falling apart

Boris Johnson enters the third year of his premiership in a much weaker position than when he started it. Alongside major rebellions inside his own party, humiliating by-election defeats and growing speculation across Westminster about who will succeed him, he has another problem: the coalition of voters who propelled him into Number 10 Downing Street is now rapidly falling apart.

One reason why Johnson emerged with the biggest Conservative majority since Margaret Thatcher’s third and final majority in 1987 is because he united Leavers; those who have felt ignored, neglected and even held in contempt by much of the ruling class.

While this process began under Theresa May, Johnson’s ‘Get Brexit Done’ strategy took it to its logical conclusion. He recruited more than three-quarters of Leavers (and a not insignificant one-quarter of Remainers) in 2019 and cannibalised much of Nigel Farage’s vote along the way. And, at least until this autumn, he managed to retain the support of almost all of these voters, aided by a strong vaccine programme.

These voters also changed the nature of conservatism, something Johnson’s advisors have clearly struggled to recognise and respond to.