Matthew Goodwin

Matthew Goodwin is an academic, writer and speaker known for his work on political volatility, risk, populism, British politics, Europe, elections and Brexit.

How mass immigration is worsening the housing crisis

Sometimes, what matters in politics is how one issue merges with another to produce an explosive reaction. In the 2010s, it was the fusion of immigration with the European Union which collided to pave the way for Nigel Farage, Brexit, and then Boris Johnson, dramatically expanding the amount of space for these populist revolts. But

It’s time to move on from Boris Johnson

Boris Johnson, so the joke goes, will always be remembered as the third prime minister to have been brought down by…Boris Johnson. After bringing down his old rival David Cameron by campaigning for Brexit, and then helping to bring down Theresa May by campaigning against her soft Brexit, Johnson then set the stage for his

Coffee House Shots Live: Coronation special

71 min listen

The coronation will commemorate the start of a new era, but what will this mean for the United Kingdom? How will Charles III secure his place in history – and what kind of monarch will he be? From pageantry to the polls: will the coronation distract voters from the Tories’ predicted heavy losses in the

Brexit regrets? Britain has a few

A creeping sense of Bregret is taking hold in Britain. A majority of Brits now say that the vote for Britain leaving the EU was a mistake. Only one in five think Brexit is going well – and seven in ten say that it has gone as badly, or worse, than they feared. In the

Britain needs to take back control of its borders

Britain has lost control of its borders. Over the last four years, the number of asylum-seekers and illegal migrants who have arrived unlawfully in Britain in small boats, after passing through safe countries, has rocketed from just 299 to nearly 40,000.  This year, so far, the number of people crossing the Channel each month has surged from

Boris won’t save the Tory party

In the aftermath of Trussfall, amid the victory of the lettuce, the Conservative party has today crashed to just 14 per cent in the polls. This is the party’s lowest level of support in British polling history. The previous low, 17 per cent, was recorded during the Brexit meltdown in the spring of 2019, amid

Can the next Tory leader avoid John Major’s fate?

The wheels are coming off the Conservative party. In recent days, in the polls, the party averaged just 31 per cent of the national vote. This is John Major in 1997 territory, or William Hague in 2001, both of whom were humiliated at the ballot box. Britain’s governing party is now in the fast lane toward

Boris Johnson’s coalition of voters is falling apart

Boris Johnson enters the third year of his premiership in a much weaker position than when he started it. Alongside major rebellions inside his own party, humiliating by-election defeats and growing speculation across Westminster about who will succeed him, he has another problem: the coalition of voters who propelled him into Number 10 Downing Street

University Challenge: the next education mess

31 min listen

While the government’s U-turn on A-level and GCSE results has been widely welcomed, universities are still in a dire state – why? (00:55) Plus, has Boris Johnson got the right approach in his war on fat? (15:00) And finally, are illegal raves during the pandemic socially irresponsible, or just young people sticking it to The

Boris Johnson could quickly come unstuck

The Conservative party is no longer the party of the rich, while the Labour party is no longer the party of the poor. That is the central finding of my new report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation (JRF). Boris Johnson is certainly a prime minister under pressure. Public disapproval of his government is drifting upwards.

The death of populism has been greatly exaggerated

Have we reached peak populism? This is the question being asked after a recent regional election in Italy delivered a setback to Matteo Salvini, the de facto head of Europe’s populist family. In the affluent and historically left-wing region of Emilia Romagna, Salvini’s right-wing alliance finished more than seven points behind the Left. It wasn’t

Brexit party voters will decide Boris Johnson’s fate

The fate of Boris Johnson’s premiership will be determined by Nigel Farage and the Brexit party. Even if a Brexit deal can be agreed, another extension to the deadline of 31 October still seems possible. If the can is kicked down the road, the question of how Farage’s voters will react is key. Without the support

Freshers week is torture for an ageing academic like me

A fellow academic once said that working at a university is one of only a few places where you grow older while everyone around you stays the same age. It was this remark that occupied my mind this week as I trundled through campus, smiling and greeting our ever-younger-looking first-year undergraduates. The whole idea of

Ukip reborn

The UK Independence Party might be about to make a comeback. Ever since Theresa May’s Chequers deal on Brexit, which went down very badly indeed among grassroots Conservatives and Leavers, the opinion polls have been kind to the Purple Army. The week after the Chequers deal went public, one pollster found support for the party

What drives populism?

What has led to the rise of populism? The conventional answer involves inequality, flattening wages – and general economic malaise. In Europe, one year after the vote for Brexit, Martin Wolf of the Financial Times claimed that the global financial crisis had ‘opened the door to a populist surge’. In America, thousands rushed out to